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Tag: Federal Reserve

The Current State Of the U.S. Financial Markets – A Few Thoughts

October 25, 2023

Hey brother, I obviously can’t cover it all, and lest we forget, this is a 55/45 game at best. Despite our best Fundamental AND Technical analysis, there is still no better way to make and more importantly save money than forgetting the short term and just adding in and keeping it in LONGterm. Because NObody gets it right all or even most of the time.

But here are Some Notes as of today…. Bearing in mind this is of course all due to change.

The problem we have here today is multi-fold:

  • In this kind of sell it all environment we have today, it doesn’t really matter what earnings are compared to normal. A Beat could still be met with a lukewarm reception. Which would fry the shit out of all those overpriced High IV Calls people bought.
    Look at MSFT as a perfect example. A BIG beat. But it’s DOWN 7 from the days high and down 6-7 from its Open. I.E. all the action was in extended hours. Options holders got screwed.
  • META. It’s been in and still is an admitted restructuring phase where it warned shareholders they’d be spending a lot more to build and grow over the next 4-6 quarters as it fully transitions into META from FB. If they Miss in any way, it’s going to drag this market down tomorrow in a way that makes today look like a day at the beach.
    If it Beats, it could really help bring some life back to the DAQ. But a 2%+ reversal from today? No way. AMZN is next tomorrow. No one is expecting much. Because AMZN earnings are always a wash. A traditionally notoriously unprofitable company except for its AWS cloud services. BUT if GOOG’s massive Cloud services Miss was any indication, and businesses are truly moving away from Cloud, AWS could also decline, pushing AMZN down. And Putting even more downward pressure on the NAZ. And then there's AAPL the most heavily weighted stock on the 3 Indices. Where AAPL goes so goes the NAZ. And this is why we've seen such ugly action in what's usually a great month, October. No one is expecting a Beat from AAPL this time. Too many problems. Too few new products that excite. Declining sales in China and the US advance notice already given. And a fully over-saturated market. (Hence perhaps todays announcement they're raising the price of AppleTV+. The one saving grace for AAPL and us all... It's burgeoning Services dept. If they can continue to show growing demand and revenue from Services, it might squeak by and save the day. My prediction: Services will show good steady growth. But it won't be enough to rally the stock. I am praying I am wrong on this and that AAPL absolutely blows the roof off of its release. Truly. Nobody wants a losing 4th quarter in the mkts. Except the hardcore Shorts. Markets in general. All four indices are now in clear downtrends. The Russell is actually down -5.7% on the year. This normally is a bearish indicator. The DJIA is only up 6% on the year. Ouch! For "the Index of Indexes" that ostensibly holds only the strongest healthiest and profitable 30 companies money can buy of all Sectors, this does not bode well. The S&P is still holding a decent 11%+. But it's sitting right on top of both it's 50 and 100 Day MAs. That needs to change. Fast. And then there's the beloved NASDAQ. Still up a whopping 26%! It has now almost transcended being an index of stocks and is more akin to a roulette wheel, with more and more mkt participants, and algos, trading solely off the NAZ itself with no knowledge or concern for what actual stocks comprise it. The 10 Day has now dipped below the 20, and the price is now below both. But it's got a LONG way to go to reach the 50 or 100 Day. So it's still far from worrisome. In fact a 26% return in a year is downright mouth watering. Of course META AMZN and AAPL could and will impact the index considerably. We just aren't sure which way.... One bright spot to note: although the VIX is up over 25% in the last month, it's still hovering around $20. That’s elevated to be sure, but it doesn't show massive protection buying going on. Not yet at least. We'll know more tonight. And next week. Inflation and Rates Simply put, Inflation is still too hot. Ask consumers. Ask Hedge Fund managers. Or Big Company CEOs (privately). As investors, fund managers and CEOs, of course we all want rates to come down. But nobody is kidding themselves. The Fed made a mistake by pausing too soon. Maybe it was the pressure from markets. Maybe it's an honest mistake. But the bond mkt -- some say THE leading indicator, is flashing rates need to go higher still if we're ever going to get inflation truly under control again. Sure it'll hurt. Again. Even more. But what we have here is just prolonged pain caused by this never ending feeling of indecision and distrust that inflation isn't going to come rallying back in 3-6 months. One might say that, frustrated with the Pollyanna style of the current Fed, the Bond Market is doing the Federal Reserve's job at the moment.

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World War III Watch – Week Of April 14, 2023

April 17, 2023

:: BREAKING :: April 20, 2023 10:36 am Nicaragua president Daniel Ortega appeared on a televised interview on COMBATE in Nicaragua today. What he said was no surprise to regular readers of these pages. But to the rest of the world, it came as quite a shock at first. And yet what was so surprising were just how many people once they viewed it, declared how much sense it actually makes. The realization is awakening in mass consciousness so quickly ….

Nicaragua President DANIEL ORTEGA: “World War III is already underway. This is World War III. Why? Because it is the United States and Europe using Ukraine to seek how to disappear Russia. The same thing that happened in World War II… and the first troops that entered the bunker then in Germany were the troops of the Soviet Union. They were the first to enter. In other words, the victory, the great defeat and the victory of the peoples rested on the Russian people, on the Red Army, on the Soviet people. And now we are seeing the same story…

The Russian Federation is fighting a battle for peace. It’s not against a nation. It’s against the fascists, the Nazis who staged a coup d’état there in Ukraine and settled there. It’s Hitler’s children who are ruling there… meanwhile, NATO harassing Russia with more weapons, more bases, and the United States leading the orchestra of international terrorists…”

Nicaragua President DANIEL ORTEGA: "World War III is already underway. This is World War III. Why? Because it is the United States and Europe using Ukraine to seek how to disappear Russia. The same thing that happened in World War II… and the first troops that entered the… pic.twitter.com/1leqANzwgV

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) April 20, 2023

APOCALYPSE VOW —Ukraine Joining NATO ‘Guaranteed’ to Start World War III, Russian Official Says

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-joining-nato-guaranteed-to-start-world-war-iii-russian-official-says

“The war in Ukraine is “guaranteed” to escalate into World War III if Kyiv is allowed to join NATO, a Russian Security Council official said Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise announcement that he had made a fast-track bid for membership into the military alliance just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory on Sept. 30. All of NATO’s 30 members would have to approve Ukraine’s bid, making full membership of the defense group a long way off. “Kyiv is well aware that such a step would mean a guaranteed escalation to World War III,””

BREAKING :: U.S. Treasury’s Yellen Says U.S. China Relationship Is Clearly At A ‘Tense Moment’

YELLEN SAYS U.S. CHINA RELATIONSHIP IS CLEARLY AT A 'TENSE MOMENT' -JOHNS HOPKINS SAIS SPEECH

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 20, 2023

EXCLUSIVE —- Pakistan makes its first purchase of discounted Russian oil —- https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusivepakistan-buys-its-first-cargo-of-discounted-russian-crude-oil-3060193 https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1649056913756389377?s=46&t=mnbi41BC-wcQNxvdeSy6nQ

“The U.S. dollar historically has been the currency of oil trade, but the Ukraine war has eroded its dominance as Russia avoids receiving a currency it has been largely blocked from using by Western sanctions.”

Well, we knew this. Or at least thought we did. And it’s turning out to be true. It doesn’t take much observation to see that neither the millennial federation nor Gen Z have any interest in suddenly turning patriotic, donning some itchy uniforms and traveling great distances to defend America’s strange form of capitalism-gone-wild-but-let’s-still-call-it-democracy half way around the world. One too many Vietnam movies for them. One too many “Iraq has WMDs” for them. And far too much desire to appear to be an Influencer or go viral or be a reality TV star or be a TikTok star or smoke a blunt for 15 minutes. Likes and Views baby do not demand serving in a military.

Kids these days are all too aware of the downsides of enlisting. Potentially getting killed, for one.https://t.co/TjHiGKiBDX

— The Nation (@thenation) April 20, 2023

And then there’s this. An expose’ about how the United States still spends more than every other nation on earth combined on continuing to build up its military. Nothing new there. The problem? It’s an old fashioned, large, clunky, antiquated military better suited to the 20th century. Already the U.S. and it’s various infrastructure is being bombarded by cyberattacks on a near daily basis to which it is completely unable to defend itself against. And that’s during, ostensibly, peacetime. Imagine if these foes continued their attacks as this quickly growing lead up to WW III were to heat up even more, which they will. The risk, the one that everyone in the world seems to see — especially America’s ever expanding enemies — except the bigwigs hiding behind the big doors who seem to be controlling everything in the US of A, is that Russia or China or Iran or any of the other countries now firmly entrenched in the New Communist Alliance will sit 2-3 capable 14 year old tech geniuses down in a little room, perhaps in Cuba or Venezuela, and order them to “take out all the major power grids in the US, along with their water mains and internet just for fun, and the American military response will be to roll out a battalion or two of tanks and a few thousand infantry men. And as funny as this hyperbolic image is, it’s also deeply sad and troubling because of just how true it rings in the hearts and minds of the few left with their wits still about them or smart enough to get it. After the Great Dumbing Down America went through as a side effect of the self-demolition of the Republican Party and their naked criminal-mastermind of an emperor, Donald Trump, it is hard to fathom that there are many. Americans of course won’t notice any of this because they’ll be far too busy hypnotized by their Netflix or their Super Bowl or their $500 a seat Taylor Swift concert or their TikTok. You know, as we write this this evening I can still remember the foolhardy comments I received four years ago when I stated i would never be so naïve and short sighted as to download TikTok onto my own phone nor let my kids do it and at the same time suggested what a genius move it was strategically for China to attack the United States so transparently right out in the open through an app, placed right into the greedy grubby hands of every American absolutely free. How many friends replied with snide or sarcastic remarks such as “yeah right, because the Chinese think I’m so important they want to spy on ME…”. Well that mission has been accomplished. We could write a small book on all the damage that “little app” has already put the country in; but much more importantly it’s about what a ticking time bomb it was set up to be and how now that it’s made the rounds through every digital nook and cranny of the entire populace, corporation, organization and government office it’s fully prepared to achieve any number of the countless nefarious missions China planned for it. Pure bloody genius. The bigger picture here is less about the impending global super-conflict heating up, and more about who the winners and losers are going to be, and given the context and data we now possess, just how completely ill-prepared the United States is for it.

From TIME Magazine :: America’s Military Is Unprepared for Our Age of Advanced Technology — Equipped to face the threats of yesterday, our military needs to reform to keep us safe from the threats of tomorrow —- https://apple.news/ADBcJh1l-QsWQZk1yAdM2BA

For current readers of the Diaries, specifically the new series, World War III Watch, the release of this new article in The Nation today should feel like vindication. For it is. As it very accurately echos everything this writer has been saying here for over six months. Though with a few glaring differences. They are taking a much more conservative approach to the events we’ve been witnessing than I have. They also seem to be operating under the misconception that president Joe Biden “has committed” the United States to anything, let alone “a four-front global crusade”. For those that have seen or heard Joe Biden anytime in the last year or two, it is clear that’s simply not possible. Physically, not possible. They’re also presupposing that the United States is somehow in charge of this current impending global military conflict. Probably because they’re accustomed to the US being at the forefront of most large scale global conflagrations — it’s probably not occurred to them that the United States is in the backseat on this one. At best going for a ride, albeit not driving, not choosing the destination, not giving directions and in the backseat. At worst they’re in the trunk, being taken for a ride by enemies who want nothing less for them than the end of their superpower status forever.

Biden has now committed us to a four-front global crusade against Russia, China, Iran, and a continually shifting terrorist hit list. None of these “enemies” threaten the survival or well-being of Americans.https://t.co/l0Dw9zKwMt

— The Nation (@thenation) April 19, 2023

I’ve been writing about this, first bubbling, now obvious & ever-growing story, in a series called World War III Watch in the Transcendence Diaries for 6 months. I disagree w the notion that “none of these threaten the well-being of Americans”. @evangershkovich comes to mind. ‬

Yet more poking at the Russian Bear by the West with yet even more dangerous, disturbing and completely unnecessary events. The sovereign nation of Russia, one of the oldest conti

US LOOKS FORWARD TO WELCOMING SWEDEN TO BECOME A FULL NATO MEMBER BEFORE JULY SUMMIT: U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY

— Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) April 19, 2023

Russian foreign minister visits Latin America —- Russia is moving fast now in their travels around the world to collect both more new countries, and some longtime allies such as Cuba and Venezuela, for the New Communist Alliance they seem to be forming with now-seemingly global Head Honcho, China. No longer afraid or intimidated by the once mighty United States, both countries are on a mission to force those lines in the sand and see where everyone stands. America and a deflated Europe suddenly appear small, with the EU battling persistent inflation and weaker global influence, and the United States seemingly constantly battling itself in a strange Cold War Civil War. China and Russia know this is their time if there’s ever going to be one. Details in article below:

Sergey Lavrov spent Monday in Brasilia, where recently elected President “Lula” Da Silva has already irked Washington by both-sidesing the Ukraine war and refusing to sell weapons to Kyiv.

For Russia, it’s no small thing that one of the world’s largest democracies is at least sympathetic to the Kremlin’s version of the Ukraine story. The fact that Russia exports lots of fertilizer to Brazil’s powerful farm industry probably helps.

Lula, meanwhile, has long sought to carve out a role as a leader of the Global South, where many view the faraway Ukraine war chiefly through the lens of food and energy price inflation and are skeptical of American arguments about defending democracy or the “rules-based order.” Still, he has to tread carefully – osgringos are Brazil’s largest foreign investors and key partners on Lula’s climate change agenda.

While Lavrov thanked Lula for his support, the White House, in a tough rebuke, accused the Brazilian president of “parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda without at all looking at the facts.”

After Brasilia, Lavrov will visit old Kremlin comrades in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. All are countries where US sanctions have enabled Russia to gain significant footholds in energy, arms sales, and general “rogue-state” bonhomie.

But beyond that, Russia lags well behind the region’s two major external players: China and the US. See our GT below for more.

But it’s not as simple as that. America is still the economic super power in Latin America, by leaps and bounds. See the Eurasia Group article and graphic below.

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is on a mission to shore up support wherever it can – particularly among rogue and non-aligned states. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is currently jet-setting across Latin America in a bid to rally support for Moscow’s war effort and send a message to the Americans about its own inroads in the region. But when push comes to shove, Moscow has minimal economic clout in Latin America compared to Washington, resulting in less diplomatic leverage. We take a look at Latin American states’ trade ties with the US and Russia.

FBI arrests two alleged Chinese agents and charges dozens with working inside US to silence dissidents —- https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/17/politics/fbi-chinese-agents

TAIWAN TO BUY 400 US ANTI-SHIP MISSILES INTENDED TO REPEL CHINA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 17, 2023

CHINA WARNS OF 'MAJOR' MILITARY ACTION IN YELLOW SEA TUESDAY…

— FxMacro (@fxmacro) April 17, 2023

CHINA MARITIME SAFETY ADMINISTRATION: MAJOR MILITARY ACTIVITY TO BE CONDUCTED IN YELLOW SEA ON APRIL 18 BETWEEN 0900-1200 LOCAL TIME

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 17, 2023

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World War III Watch — Week Of April 10, 2023

April 11, 2023

It was a fast-paced, busy week of world affairs and events leading up to a potential mass global military conflict, or at the very least and more easily recognizable, a major pivot from the United States to China as the worlds new superpower. (This is important in the larger scope of World War III Watch because the United States cannot afford to not be the worlds leading superpower. Literally. Due to their astronomical debt, the largest one in human history, their staggering Debt/GDP ratio, that statistically is and will be impossible to ever get out of withOUT a war (that they must win) and the now suddenly very real possibility that the US dollar will no longer be “the worlds reserve currency”, one can be sure that behind every closed door in America’s over-inflated government, the main topic of discussion is how to maintain a shred of decency as the world pivots to China as its new leader, punctuated by declarations that this simply cannot stand because the country cannot afford it, with surely plenty of quiet suggestions that “we all know what we must do now…”.)

What has held up the United States for decades as the worlds superpower in the face of the financially bankrupt state it’s been in, is two-fold: the power, might and sheer massive size of its military, plus the shocking number of military bases and black ops sites it has all over the world — over 1500 at last count, 3 times the number of the second most, Russia, and #2, the dominance of the U.S. Dollar, or “the Petrodollar” so named because of the forcibly mandatory rule that all nations on planet earth must use the US Dollar to conduct its business in the energy sector, to buy or sell OIL. Without these two painful facts for the rest of the world, the United States would have ceased being the leading superpower decades ago. There are plenty of other countries who have their fiscal house in order and are even running surpluses rather than record setting debt, with less corruption and much happier citizenry. For all the patriotic speak, mainly from the slave states (now referring to themselves as “red states”), Americans, as can be seen from any viewpoint anywhere in the world, are extremely unhappy. Especially with their government. So too are the majority of world leaders regarding the American government. Unhappy displeased disappointed discouraged disgusted delightfully gleeful about how quickly the house is crumbling. Even with concentration camps, communism and slave labor, other countries are lining up to form alliances with China simply because they appear to be strong, have clearly stated realizable goals in front of them and have their house in order.

AND because, unlike the United States, who is as corrupt and duplicitous as any other empire on earth but pretends it’s God’s gift to freedom fairness and Justice when it clearly isn’t. Whereas China doesn’t back away from being upfront about who it is. Corrupt and murderous? Sure. Like every other country in the world today. But they don’t hide it. They defend their being so and the reasons why. But they don’t pretend to be something they are not.

America has been doing this “believe what we say not what we do” dance for decades. And to many other countries, this charade is beginning to smell bad, especially in the new millennium.

Where else are the people and even the government itself willing to elect a highly suspect, piggish and pathologically narcissistic, ludicrously ignorant and criminal thug who giddily incites violence and treasonous government overthrows at the drop of a hat for president? In America it is something the people are killing themselves fighting over. In the rest of the world it is something the people shake their head in shock over. Or laugh about. The truth is, America, in the state it’s in now, doesn’t deserve to be the worlds leading superpower.

As the CNN article below details, leaders from nations all over the globe are flocking to Beijing to meet with and pay their respects to China president Xi Jinping, seeing him as the world’s new de facto leader, a spot once held only for American Presidents since the end of World War II. But times have changed. No one is lining up to pay homage to or kiss the ring of Gentle Joe Biden, no matter how civil, respectable or noble the man is. It is sad that this landed at his feet in the last few years of his life. One of the most major and important transformations in modern history, one that Gentle Joe is clearly not adept enough to handle now. And his VP, well there probably isn’t a soul on earth who wants to even see her try.

So the question remains. Will the United States allow China and Russia and this New Communist Alliance to take over? Or will the military step in and force a war as they’ve done so many times in the past in order to try to maintain America’s global dominance? The answer is yet to come. Article directly below:

World leaders are lining up to meet Xi Jinping. Should the US be worried? https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/china/xi-jinping-lula-china-brazil-world-leaders-visit-beijing-intl-hnk-mic

As has been stated numerous times throughout the last 100 years, without the US Dollar being the (albeit mandatory) “worlds reserve currency, the United States would be truly bankrupt — as it is already, the only difference being that it is still able to pull off the “superpower” charade due to every country in the world being forced to use the U.S. dollar for energy, oil and other trade purchases. That and it’s military might. In other words, in both cases, the threat of military action by the most militarily powerful country in human history. A few articles from just this week, below, follow this quickly unfolding story,,,

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A post shared by BreakThrough News (@btnewsroom)

Lula in China to ditch US dollar

The Brazilian president lashes out at the US dollar’s dominance in the world economy, while on a visit to China.

Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/7h1TYXZOQt pic.twitter.com/JLWEPGJLOb

— Highlights (@highlightsnews1) April 14, 2023

JUST RELEASED: One Hour Ago, Russia’s Terrifying Message To The USA. Russia’s Foreign Ministry Claimed Today That The USA and Russia Are Now Formally In “a Hot Phase Of a Cold War” and Urges The U.S. to Re-Start Some Kind Of Dialogue Before It Is Too Late. But the United States and NATO Are Not Interested In Any Kind Of Peace Talks. —- This is what is being heard in government houses all over the world at this time. Watch video below for more….

BREAKING :: CHINA, RUSSIA TO EXPLORE FREE TRADE FEASIBILITY: CHINA Ministry of Foreign Affairs —- China and Russia affirm economic cooperation for the next several years — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/china-and-russia-affirm-multi-year-economic-cooperation.html

And this: Russia and China are being driven together as the chasm with the West deepens — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/russia-and-china-are-becoming-ever-closer-and-the-west-should-worry.html

Chinese Foreign Minister Meets With Taliban Leaders On First Visit To Kabul Since Militant Group Seized Power From United States

So let’s get this straight: the United States government spent 20 years, hundreds of billions of dollars and unknown numbers of American soldiers who lost their lives or are permanently wounded or maimed to accomplish nothing except to secure a permanent position of power for the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the end Afghanistan is now more free for the authoritarian Taliban to own the country outright since the U.S. did all their dirty work for them, i.e. swept and cleaned out the county of and and all potential resistance groups. China, the largest wealthiest authoritarian nation on earth, sees the opening and has begun to court the Taliban leaders of Afghanistan with support, access, resources, infrastructure and money, seeing an opportunity to bring them into the fold of the New Communist Alliance they’re forming — a wildly successful mission that they’re moving on and making tremendous progress with at an alarmingly fast rate, while the United States is sadly still courting little broken former empires of the 20th century. Shockingly short sighted. An alliance of any kind between China and Afghanistan will be beneficial for both countries. And disadvantageous for the United States and other Western nations. And how will China fund this new venture? Well besides the aforementioned hundreds of billions the United States unwittingly contributed to China’s becoming the new big brother to Afghanistan through its 20 years long war there, 100% of the necessary funds going forward will come from the hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars China gets from the U.S. every year. America has become completely dependent on China economically and financially. Whether it’s the billions China makes from the US housing the majority of its manufacturing there (talk of onshoring or reshoring manufacturing back to the United States is just that, talk. Very cheap talk. Nothing but bread and candy politicians throw out to the unknowing working classes during political campaigns and rallies. Bringing manufacturing back to the US would bankrupt the already bankrupt Country in less than a year. Besides the insane amount of money China makes from the United States through selling its manufacturing and slave labor, China also provides the United States with its largest consumer base for American companies who simply couldn’t stay in business and do well without the Chinese consumers. China knows this. And they use it to their own benefit and to the detriment of the U.S. Even subtle and slight manipulations of what America is allowed to export and sell to chinese consumers has a major affect on the bottomline of America’s largest companies. And China knows this. So as China and Russia continue to build up both their war chest for what they see is an already very hot Cold War with the West, and the ever increasing number of nations joining their New Communist Alliance, ironically it’s the United States who are footing the bill for it all. https://www.rferl.org/a/chinese-fm-visits-taliban-afghanistan/31768166.html

And this: A Year After Taliban Takeover, What Are China’s Plans For Afghanistan? — https://www.rferl.org/a/china-plans-for-afghanistan-year-after-taliban-takeover/31989722.html

INSIDE DETAILS OF THE HISTORIC RUSSIA CHINA AND IRAN SECRET DEAL —- https://www.firstpost.com/vantage/inside-details-of-russia-iran-and-chinas-secret-deal-vantage-with-palki-sharma-6752

The below of course is total bullshit. There are plenty of alternatives to Ukraine joining NATO. Like Ukraine NOT joining NATO and neimging us one step closer to WW III. Putin has already expressed his opposition to being surrounded by NATO countries on all sides of his borders. Which is one of his stated reasons for invading Ukraine— that and getting access to all their energy machinery which has been stored there for decades. Why the blatant disrespect for Russia’s sovereignty? With Finland already now joining NATO to cover Russia’s northern border, does anyone think Russia is going to just lie down and accept being surrounded by NATO country’s without a fight? Would the United States? Of course not. It’s time the US and EU started leveling with its people about what’s really going on here, what’s at stake, and more importantly stopped all this nonsense. And Zelensky and Ukraine need to start fighting their own battles.

UKRAINIAN DEFENCE MINISTER REZNIKOV: THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO UKRAINE'S ACCESSION TO NATO

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 13, 2023

Putin’s Russia, Xi Jinping’s China Reportedly In Secret Talks To Supply Iran With Sanctioned Missile Fuel —- https://www.smartnews.com/p/4536896343376924133?placement=article-preview-social&share_id=BMFZlI

And there it is (below). In one of the many steps the world has helplessly witnessed towards China taking Taiwan back after all these years, as many as possible disclosed in these pages, newswires just announced China will start imposing No Fly Zones just north of Taiwan starting on April 16, 2023. Clearly a response to the United States hosting a high ranking Taiwanese leader to come to the US and meet with various politicians. Was it a mistake for the United States to make such a paper tiger move considering it can’t even get its own house in order? Unless they aren’t telling us all something(s), which has been their modus operendi for time immemorial so a caveat on this one, yes clearly it was a huge mistake. It played right into China’s hands and plans re Taiwan and gave them the perfect reason and ammunition they needed to take all the actions they have against Taiwan that we’ve seen over the last two weeks in ostensible retaliation for said trip.

CHINA PLANNING TO IMPOSE NO-FLY ZONE NORTH OF TAIWAN APRIL 16-18: SOURCES

— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) April 12, 2023

Discussed in the first post on the subject matter, Fractional Reserve Banking + the United States having the largest debt in human history at over 20 trillion dollars + the largest budget in history now topping 1 trillion + one of the highest Debt/GDP ratios on planet earth + other large nations, some of whom are part of the New Communist Alliance, working feverishly to undermine and usurp the U.S. dollar from being the world’s most popular and reserve currency = a very important aspect of an impending potential global military conflict. More in the video below:

The decline in bank lending looks bad, down $100b in two weeks, the biggest two week fall since '01 (since '09 on a % basis.) But loans are still 18% above the pre-pandemic level. Some adjustment was inevitable. Will need to be sustained and not replaced by other sources to have… pic.twitter.com/ta1qdv6LE1

— Steve Liesman (@steveliesman) April 11, 2023

#BREAKING: Finally with the end of a 5-day long military exercise, #Azerbaijan Army started its military operation against #Armenia today. Clash in the border area between Lachin and Sivnik province of #Armenia is now started. pic.twitter.com/h8n4NqerYg

— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) April 11, 2023

Lindsey Graham: 'Let's Fight China!' – today on the Liberty Report:https://t.co/z80hZoxMxe

— Ron Paul (@RonPaul) April 11, 2023

Although not specifically evidentiary to an impending global military conflict, Myanmar, or Burma, has been a concern for many for a decade as it so easily illustrates the intense struggle humanity still faces between a world of democracy, fairness, justice and human rights or one shaped by military juntas, communism, dictatorships and authoritarianism.

Myanmar Military Attack —- At least 50 people, including civilians, were killed in central Myanmar early Tuesday after the nation’s military junta launched an airstrike on an antigovernment ceremony outside the city of Mandalay, the nation’s second-largest. Members of the People’s Defense Force—the armed wing of the opposition, prodemocracy National Unity Government—were opening a local office in Pa Zi Gyi village when fighter jets attacked.

Myanmar—also known as Burma—has been fighting one of the world’s longest-running civil wars, a conflict driven by the country’s nearly 100 ethnic minorities (see background). Despite a brief period of multiparty democracy last decade, a coup in 2021 returned the southeastern Asian country to military rule, prompting lawmakers from jailed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s party to form an alternative government, which today reportedly controls almost half of the country’s territory. 

The junta has promised to hold elections in August of this year after extending a February 2021 state of emergency for the third time.

Fareed Zakaria makes mention of the New Cold War the world has found itself in, a fact that most people still don’t understand or recognize. I take it one step further obviously and have a feeling we’re just getting started. A new world order is in already deep in transition from western forces to the New Communist Alliance, but it won’t happen without a fight.

Not your father’s cold war https://t.co/jf11qCK3zo

— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) April 12, 2023

In a deal that was the United States’ to broker under normal circumstances in times past, China now takes the lead in today’s world…

NEW: #Iran Re-Opens Gates of Embassy in #Saudi Arabia after 7 years of closure. 6 weeks after China brokered deal https://t.co/HJd6HxSVJ5

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) April 12, 2023

Not “directly” related to a massive global military conflict A to B per se, unless you’ve been reading these pages closely of course. Then it makes perfect sense. As with all global empires and superpowers throughout human history, the United States amassed an enormous debt, in fact the largest one the world has ever seen in 6,000 years of recorded history; so big in fact that it has been unable to run the business of its government or the nation itself without doing so from a HUGE budget deficit every year. Put simply the United States of America is broke. Not just broke but busted. Bankrupt. Destitute. More so than any other country on planet earth. The only things keeping it going are two: 1. The fact that it’s currency the US Dollar or USD was corruptly forced upon the world and every country in it to be “the world’s currency”, i.e. other nation states are forced to use their own currencies to BUY US dollars in order to buy or sell energy and oil. Incipient? Definitely. But very beneficial for Americans. The ——

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A President Should Be Presidential – On China Trade War and the Federal Reserve

August 31, 2019

REALITY CHECK: While many (including myself) agree with the US president’s stance on China Trade, specifically the need to stop forced technology transfers and IP theft (the trade imbalance is not actually an issue; certainly not one that can be or ever has been solved through a race to the bottom tariff war. Trade imbalances between nations of different sizes have always and will always exist. Attempting to equalize Trade monetarily is ill advised. The US president either doesn’t know this yet or refuses to acknowledge it publicly), all who actually work in business, finance and economics wholeheartedly believe that he, and we, would be much better served if he stopped attacking and blaming Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for the extreme volatility in global bond and equity markets and the general economic slowdown and instead acknowledged that it is indeed the current trade war with China.

Main-streeters may be entertained by these daily twitter shenanigans (since when is a US president allowed to tweet? Didn’t President Obama have to relinquish his BlackBerry when he took office?) But Wall Street, economists and big business are shocked and horrified. There’s something palpably disturbing about having a commander and chief who knows less than you do about business and finance. Which is why markets have been headed nowhere or down for a year and half and why global bond yields are tanking.

Just because someone is standing in front of you confidently asserting they see a pink elephant doesn’t mean there’s a pink elephant in the room with you. No matter how many times they scream or tweet it. There is never a time when it’s not important to remember this.

The biggest economic conundrum the United States faces at the moment regarding interest rates is that economic conditions are doing well by all measures that The (not)Fed uses to address its dual mandate of maintaining stable inflation and keeping unemployment low. The United States is at record low unemployment. Even by the president’s own accounts… And yes this seeming disconnect in his understanding of basic economics is frustrating. And disturbing. So the (not)Fed has absolutely no realistic fundamental reasons to lower rates based on their long running mandate.

While it’s true that the global economy seems to be heading toward a recession, or worse (over 30 countries now have negative yielding interest rates — with a record 15 TRILLION dollars in global debt that is yielding negative interest! This is historically unprecedented in human civilization), and many now have inverted yield curves (including the US)), the US is still doing impressively well. Meaning lowering rates is not justifiable.

Further rate cuts by the US central bank based solely on other countries’ lowering theirs may excite markets for a day or two, but will ultimately lead to a sell off as investors lose faith in the US central bank’s normally independent, rational and clear headed process. It could also lead to a very fast race to the bottom of treasury rates globally, gut savings and retirement accounts, castrate bank’s’ ability to make money, and further exacerbate the growing global economic slowdown. At that point the world would no longer have the US economy or markets to run to. And THAT would be a major problem considering it’s the last TINA Trade left on earth right now to grow money.

Furthermore if the world does continue to shrink economically and the Federal Reserve suddenly needs to actually lower rates or resort to QE again to save us from impending doom, they’ll have no ammunition left if they lower rates now in a “booming economy”. It’s an illogical argument. And it’s sad that there are decent hardworking Americans out there who are literally learning about these issues from someone who’s either extremely ignorant about them or overtly attempting to deceive them. It’s blatantly irresponsible.

So… what to do? Because most informed people agree with the noble goal of addressing the problems with China trade, most support the president’s courageous attempt to do so at this time. Including me. Tariff wars might not be the best way to do it. Historically they’ve rarely worked. But just starting the process is a good intention. Can’t fault him for his willingness to take this bold step. He’s swimming in uncharted waters. And despite our political leanings he needs our support. Just as we need his.

What he needs to do is stop tweeting insults, attacks, false facts and conspiracy theories and instead sit down behind his desk on live TV and address the nation, to honestly and passionately tell the American people and the world how important this battle is, why we’re doing it and that we all need to pitch in and prepare for some serious pain now in order to secure a better fairer trade agreement with China for our future.

If he did this, the confusion would abate and so too might the market volatility. Hell, markets might even rally just to show support for his newfound diplomacy and honesty and the stability it portends. In addition he might even rally the American people to unify for even a brief period while we face this important challenge. Just a thought.

— Ambassador out

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Current Events, Economics, Politics and Government, Wealth Finance and Investing bond yields, China trade war, Donald Trump, Federal Reserve, global negative yielding debt, inverted yield curve, Jerome Powell, negative interest rates, POTUS, recession, treasury markets, United States president

It’s Not a Conspiracy if Everybody Knows About it

June 27, 2016

I received a message this weekend from someone with a few questions regarding the potential of a “conspiracy” around the upcoming US presidential election. I don’t get a chance to respond to all messages I receive. I would say that the process is almost “random” at this point. Some just catch my eye. Many i simply never get a chance to read. But I try. I really do. In any case, here is one that I felt particularly intrigued to respond to for some reason.

“Ed… I trust yr opinion on politics….what do you think of this theory which keeps being tossed around. this was posted on the new Reddit Sub.. “Political Revolution” by a anonymous poster (don’t know if you go on Reddit but it is all anon) interesting times as Harry Palmer would say. hope you see this .. would love yr input….–]YourPoliticalParty [score hidden] 14 minutes ago

“Sigh Here we go again: Donald Trump is false-flagging as a Republican (thanks to the right-wing popularity he got from pushing the Obama “birther” nonsense in 2008) to discredit the Republican Party, to distract from Hillary Clinton’s scandals/investigation, and to force voters to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election as the “lesser-of-two-evils.” Trump and the Clintons have been close-friends for years. Hillary sat front-row at Trump’s 2005 wedding, while Trump endorsed her and donated to her 2000 Senate and 2008 Presidential campaigns. Bill Clinton and Donald Trump are golfing buddies, and have regular phone conversations where they discuss golf, politics, and the Clinton Foundation. Even Chelsea and Ivanka are friends. Now, after locking in the GOP nomination, Trump ramps up his divisive rhetoric and self-sabotage to situate himself as more unfavorable than record-breaking Hillary. That’s why every single thing that comes out of the Clinton campaign ultimately goes back to Donald Trump, because his role-playing as the right-wing menace is supposed to be her guarantee to the White House. They are putting on a show for the American people, where Donald Trump plays the ignorant bigoted businessman trying to run away with the country, and Hillary Clinton pretends to be the upstanding progressive hero who will stop him.””

 

Hi there,

Re this post, this is pretty typical/classic conspiracy thought. Nothing wrong with that. I first learned about, started studying and hooked up with the patriot movement (which is a term i prefer over “conspiracy theories…) back in ’94 when i was just a youngin’. So i’ve heard it all over the last twenty years.

What i find personally is that posts like this are way too simplified compared to reality. Reality is just a very complex system. And sure there are PLENTY of real live conspiracies at play right in front of our eyes. No denying that. (9/11, the EU, this insane increase in “mass killings” in the States is certainly suspect…since it’s such a new phenom.)

But regarding this particular issue you bring up, let’s just look at the “facts” (as best we can) and not necessarily try to make any conclusions, but rather just check them out…

Trump was a long time Dem, always has been. And then mysteriously switched to the GOP. This might seem suspect… BUT this was for rather obvious reasons. No way he was going to win a primary in the modern Dem party. Just not a chance. And he knew it.

[to me personally that seems an intelligent though crafty slimy move by someone with not much left in life to achieve except “becoming president”. You know, some people desire to serve. Other’s desire to achieve. Becoming president could be viewed as a “great achievement” by some, and if one listens to Trump, it sounds like he sees it as just another great thing to achieve. By all accounts he’ll probably spend most of his time on the golf course and trying to stay a TV star. Being president of the U.S. will grow old and tiresome and too much work for him quickly. And soon it will be just another buck head on the wall. Sooooo, no real surprise there.]

Trump does happen to be good friends with the Clintons and has been for 30 years. So isn’t it weird that he’s attacking Hilary so badly?

[From a small suburban mindset, sure; no one would want their longtime next door neighbor to treat them that way… It would be shocking. BUT…these are the games that modern american politics have turned into. It’s a blood sport now. It’s reality TV at it’s absolute worst and absurd. No love will be lost between these two. They get it. It’s a show. Trump will LOVE becoming president despite his friendship with and (maybe even) love for Bill and Hilary. And he will expect Hilary and Bill to take it gracefully. We are after all talking about “the highest office in the land” — at least to many folks. And as some say, “all’s fair in love and war”. I never liked or felt aligned with that sentiment. But many less evolved believe it’s smart to abide by it.]

Trump swept the Rep nomination in a record landslide manner that we haven’t seen in the 21st or 20th centuries.

[Conspiracy? Nah. Trump just recognized how the game has completely transformed and what it’s transformed into in the last 4-8 years. Does one really believe that Cruz or Rubio or BUSH for God’s sake didn’t REALLY WANT and work hard for that nomination? Seriously? It would be a really silly short-sighted and ignorant (simply meaning not possessing much knowledge about the subject) thing to believe. Trump won it fair and square. Sad? sure. Scary. Hell yeah. Disturbing because of what it implies about at least 50% of our fellow Americans and where their heads are at? My God yes. But a conspiracy? No. He won it. The people wanted it.]

What about the whole thing on a bigger level being one big false flag in terms of “them” KNOWING Trump doesn’t stand a chance of being elected in the General, and thus being able to secure the agreement they made with Hilary back in ’08 (remember that not so secret coming out party that the Bilderberg Group had when they handed the presidency to Obama and gave Hilary Sec of State and most likely promised her POTUS in 2016?)..?

[Okay, yes, from an informed widened back perspective, this seems highly likely and some would say downright obvious. And unfortunately, that just seems to be where Americans are today. It’s all image and soundbites and not many seem to care about research or facts. So… SOMEONE has to be in charge besides “the people”. “The people” are just too damn busy doing other things now to care about how they’re governed. So these wealthy small multi/super-national elitist groups control things and keep the peace from behind closed doors. And as long as everything seems to remain relatively calm peaceful and healthy financially, the people seem to be fine with it.

(Admittedly this proposition does suck. It’s a sad idea to ponder.) BUT I will say this, after more than 25 years of studying these issues and ideas, from the whackiest to the most fact-based and obvious realities, ultimately “the people” (here at least) still get to VOTE. SO even IF the powers that be promised Hilary the presidency, if the people don’t appear to be taking the bait, she will be out. Period. Place crash, sudden illness, a drop out “to be closer to her new grandbaby…” You’ll see. These small elitist cabals that control the goings-on of global finance and politics do NOT care who appears to be in charge. Just as long as they play along with the myths. They no more “like” Hilary than anyone else they could put in her place. WHOEVER is “selected” gets briefed on how things work, who’s in charge and what’s expected of them. It’s not like they just jump in and do whatever they want. By the time one gets to where Hilary is, they’ve known who’s in charge and what the rules are for a long time.

BUT that doesn’t mean in any way that they get a free pass. I mean, just look at how HARD Hilary has had to work over the last year and a half!!!! I despise Hilary’s actions as an alleged so-called civil servant over the last 25 years. (I don’t know her personally, so I have no opinion of her person..) But i have been in awe of how hard she has worked to achieve this goal of her’s. I mean sheesh! She is on turbo. I don’t know how she does it. It just looks like she REALLY WANTS IT.

But don’t be fooled. She’s still going to have to win it. The powers that be are very aware that the American people LOVE and cherish the potus election aspect of their beloved republic and are NOT ready to give up the myths of this process. They know full well that the people need to “feel as though” THEY are electing their president. And in some ways, they still are. Just not “completely”. They’re electing the choices handed to them from a small group of people who are willing to play ball who are selected and offered up to them by others. BUT this is how it’s been in the US for a very long time.

Well isn’t that a conspiracy? Yeah, sure it is. But it’s not a new one. We’ve already known this for decades. At least since they did away with JFK MLK and Bobby for not playing ball. Is it a conspiracy if everyone knows it’s happening? Conspiracy implies secrecy. And these matters are not very secret at this point. We already know and have known that bigger figures — much bigger than any president — “control things from the shadows” (as some people like to say. I prefer “from behind closed doors” because it is more realistic). Our world has ALWAYS worked this way. For centuries. Hell, for millennia.

Until the people can take no more and they revolt. It’s cyclic. At which time, the powers that be then regroup and form a new structure closer in look and feel to what the people think they want at that time. But they still stay in control. Just under slightly different guises. AND YES the people DO get a slightly altered world that perhaps looks and feels and acts a bit more like they want it to…(civil rights legislation, women’s rights, gay rights, labor rights, the abolishment of slavery and even capital punishment in many states now, etc etc…) So as dark and depressing as this system is, it does offer hope, at least a ray of it in my humble opinion.]

Okay, so to just wrap up your original question regarding the possibility of a conspiracy surrounding the upcoming election of POTUS, i guess the best way to view it is “well yeah, sure, in the bigger picture, of course. Just as it’s always been. Nothing’s changed. Bigger powers plan and implement these things decades before we’re even thinking about them. (just look at how long they worked on creating the EU! (Its founding was in 1941 in Berlin, Nazi Germany, then a little more work in ’44…. Slow, steady, constant…. Fucking amazing patience planning and perseverance to achieve that egregious goal. (28 European countries no longer have the right to national sovereignty nor the ability to vote for their own laws as a people in their own country because it’s all being done for them by selected officials in Brussels — for 28 countries!!!! = WOW! AMAZING what people are willing to give up when they don’t care.)

BUT, here in the States the people are getting a voice still. No one’s going to occupy that House that the people don’t like or want. In today’s America, the powers that be are very aware that that mentality still stands. So we’ll end up with exactly who the majority says we will. And for better or worse, it will probably be Hilary. The better of two evils. And haven’t we been playing that game for a long time….I hope we eventually transcend it. But in the meantime, a good way to sum it up is “It’s not a conspiracy if everyone knows about it.” And at this point we do.

One more thing, since we’re on it. And since you might ask or reflect on it… “But Ed, how are we going to eradicate these selfish greedy wicked controlling forces that operate beneath the surface of things?” you might be thinking…. I know i am.

Well, real quick, just look at them. They’re freaking HUGE.

– The Rothschild banking cartel is GIGANTIC and has its hands in everything in every country and has for over a hundred years.

– Vatican City. HUGE. It’s a freaking multi-national corporation AND a COUNTRY, besides being the world’s most feared and admired religion, and yet most people don’t even know that.

– Central Banks. (one could argue that this is just an extension of The Rothschild empire, and to a certain degree, for at least the purpose of simplicity, they could be said to be right). Private Central Banks like the not-even-a-little-bit-Federal Reserve and the BOJ, BOE, PBOC and ECB control the whole bloody civilized world. The World Bank and the IMF control the rest. So…. yeah, good luck doing away with them.

– The no-such-thing-as-Royal Families. They’re everywhere. Ubiquitous leeches with enormous wealth, the largest land holdings on earth STILL and protections in place that ensure their existence for generations to come. England’s royal family lives in their own PRIVATE COUNTRY withIN England in order to protect their money and sovereignty. (in other words so that they can always be able to do what they want when they want to, just in case the rabble get out of hand again…) It’s called “London” but a different London than the UK city that everyone knows. And this is a fact that even most Brits aren’t aware of. And that’s just England.

– The Bilderberg Group. So called. This is more of just a very small arm of these larger groups mentioned above. BUT research into THEM always eventually leads one to what’s really going on.

The point being is that IMHO we aren’t going to ever eradicate these giant institutions. At least not in our lifetimes. They’re just way too big and way too cemented into human society and our cultural paradigms. Religion, government, banking, the control of money, cultural identification…. These are HUGE archetypes for most people to abandon or discreate.

Best bet is that we keep on working from the outside, one person at a time and eventually we fold these larger powers into the mix like ingredients into cake batter — the same way they did to us — and through our positive influence and vibrations they will slowly evolve into more helpful and aligned institutions and individuals.

Of course there is also the possibility that we might also be able to speed up this process through doing work in consciousness from behind the scenes. Avatar Wizards and many others are already consciously doing that. That should give us an exponential increase in velocity and creational yield I believe.

Alas I wish I had “better” news for you. But remember, this is just one idea. Nothing is set in stone. If I’ve learned one thing, it’s that. And to bring these high concepts down to earth for a moment, as an example, just look at what the Brits did last week! Sure they temporarily destroyed trillions of dollars in the world’s capital markets, BUT they demanded to take back their right to vote for their own laws and governance. That’s pretty big and impressive.

There is hope in such things.



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Uncategorized Bilderberg Group, BOE, BOJ, British Royal Family, Central Banks, conspiracy, ECB, Federal Reserve, Hilary Clinton, PBOC, Trump, U.S. 2016 presidential election, Vatican City the country

The Problem With Social

April 30, 2015

A  caveat: for those more accustomed to, and more interested in, the usually more philosophical, theological or sociological nature of The Diaries, you may want to skip this post. It’s about finance and economics and more technical than usual. Just a heads up. If you do decide to venture in, I will clarify a bit more than usual regarding the economy and investing world to give context — so another caveat, this one for those who are already well versed in all things finance and investing: you may find the first few paragraphs a bit elementary… feel free to skip ahead, but hang on and stay in. This one’s for you and there are worthy takeaways to be had.

The investing world is abuzz with Silicon Valley again and it has been for a number of years now. It feels like 1999 all over again. Both the American and European stock markets have been on a tear — in what is commonly called a “secular bull market” — for almost six straight years. People who are active or even passive investors in “the markets” have been making money hand over fist from doing absolutely nothing but just staying invested. It’s an odd paradoxical dichotomy — and it truly is — that as the American economy continues to drag and sputter, making financial abundance, or even stability, seem increasingly unreachable for the majority of Americans still, the top 1% have been doing incredibly well in “the markets”. This paradox is well known amongst the wealthiest in the country. It’s not a mystery or an unknown. It’s very well known, sad as it is, amongst the people who are making all the money. It’s a given. And there are very specific reasons for it.

One might remember investment guru Warren Buffet commenting a few year ago how ridiculous he thought it was that he pays less tax annually than his secretary does. This surprising statistic is simply due to the fact that the common bread earner in the United States pays a much higher tax on their “income” i.e. the money they earn from their job, than an investor does on the profits he or she makes in any kind of investment. That tax — known as the Capital Gains Tax — is capped at 15%. What this means is that whether you made $100 from your stock market investments last year or $1,000,000, you’re still only required to pay 15% tax on it. With the right kind of finagling — owning a few corporations that make big money — enough to fund even the most lavish lifestyles — but somehow mange to “not make a profit” but instead make a loss (and this is more common than the average person realizes…) and you can even reduce that measly 15% capital gains tax further down and come out paying Uncle Sam next to nothing, as in ZERO. You just have to know the game and how it’s played.

But this post isn’t about that. Perhaps one day we’ll go into further details about this sad but true paradox, because I must admit I do receive a fair share of requests from folks begging me to explain to them how on earth one is capable of making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and paying next to no tax on it. It’s not as hard as most people think. In fact it’s quite easy. Again, you just have to understand how the system works. So yes… perhaps we will get into it one day… But today is not that day.

Another reason for this strange upside down economy is due to Federal Reserve policy. “The Fed” as it is commonly referred to is a large private cabal of banking cartels who control the monetary policy and the money supply of the United States. The funny thing is that the Federal reserve is NOT “federal”; they are not a branch of the U.S. government. They don’t work for the U.S. government. They answer to no one. But they make all the rules. (This is truly a whole book unto itself, let alone too much for even a series of posts — so one is encouraged to take some time to research this incredibly vexing scam…) In a nutshell this organization that controls all things monetary — think the economy — is the primary entity that loans the United States the money it needs to continue to operate. When you hear terms like the national debt or national deficit, this debt is owed to this company known as The Federal Reserve; they being a private bank who exist solely to make money charges the U.S. interest on the money it lends the country, just as any bank does; thus in a way one could say that the Fed has a vested interest in seeing the United States economy do well — at the moment the U.S. owes a staggering amount of money to this organization, something to the tune of 17 TRILLION dollars.

In exchange for all the money The Fed loans the United States to stay “in business” so to speak, the United States government allows the Fed to do just about anything it wants to — including for example keeping it’s books private and sealed. One might have a recollection of a few years ago when then-presidential candidate Ron Paul (remember him?) tried to pass a Bill in Congress to force The Fed to allow the U.S. government to see it’s books — as in take a look at its accounting records. This would seem to be rather a no-brainer, right? All public companies are obligated to make their accounting records open and available to the public — how much money they have, how much debt they have, how much money they are making in gross revenues and net profits, etc. etc. But The Fed is no regular “public company”. It’s ironic if not downright terrifying that 99% of Americans do not even realize that The Federal Reserve is not only NOT part of the federal government, but they are so private that no one in the United States government is even allowed to look at it’s books. The word shocking comes to mind. But terrifying fits the bill even more appropriately considering how much power this private group of banks has over the health and wealth of the whole country.

So how much power DOES this private group of banks have over the United States? Put it this way: The Fed has the ability to say yes or no to the United States government regarding how much money it loans them or doesn’t — as in any day they can collapse the American economy or continue to allow it to wrack up more debt. It’s all in THEIR hands and truly no one else’s. They also of course have the power to set monetary policy in general — this is why it is a fool-hearty idea to ever blame a good or bad economy on any American president, for they simply don’t have much power in regards to the economy, but that doesn’t stop most people from still doing this. The primary thing the Fed does in regards to “setting monetary policy” is they decide what the lending rate is at any given time in the American economy. At the moment it is set roughly around -0-. This is the rate of interest that banks can charge each other to borrow money from one another. This “prime lending rate” has a great influence on all the other interest rates in a healthy first-world society such as mortgage rates or car loan financing interest rates or the interest one receives from investing bonds or savings accounts or bank CDs.

You might have heard the term QE bandied about over the last few years. QE stands for Quantitative Easing, which was the Fed’s fancy term for lowering the prime lending rate down to a record low AND at the same time temporarily loaning the U.S. billions of dollars by buying various bonds from the United States and various other banks — they did this in order to “stimulate the economy”, as a means to get people spending again and to get banks loaning money to people again. So far it hasn’t worked out as well as many hoped it would. BUT to be fair it did at least according to general agreement amongst most experts save the country from sinking into another Great Depression from our recent Great Recession (the recent economic crisis we experienced in 2007 and 2008).

What this policy did do though was stimulate the hell out of the American stock markets. By lowering interest rates down to near -0-, people with money had no other choice but to invest their money in the stock markets — simply because they couldn’t make any money with their money from investing in anything else. Savings accounts, bonds and CDs offered zero to almost zero return, i.e. interest. If you add in even a small amount of inflation — the price of goods increasing compared to the value of the Dollar, and one would actually LOSE money if they had invested their money in a savings account, bond or bank CD due to how low the interest received was. So people with money jumped into the stock market.

This is what has created one of the strongest and longest running bull markets in American history. More and more money has poured into the markets and as long as this mysterious organization called The Fed continues to keep interest rates LOW, then people assume that the stock market will continue to go up. From the outside, from the view of the average American who doesn’t bother to pay attention to monthly and quarterly economic data, things still seem rather bleak to be sure. Unemployment has supposedly declined, though many doubt this claim. Jobs still seem few and far between and raise and promotions seem a fantasy of days long gone by for most.

Except in the world of finance that is. You see, every time we have economic data — the investing world holds its breath: if the data is GOOD, the markets tank, as an improving economy would compel the Fed to start raising rates again which could signal the end of the bull market. So instead people who are heavily invested hope that the data is BAD. In the world of investing this is known as the “bad news is good news” paradigm and without fail every time any economic data comes in that is “bad” for the average American, you can hear and see high fives flying around Wall Street like wild fire. It’s an upside down situation to be sure. Instead of the stock markets flying high due to a healthy economy, it continues to fly high due to hopes that the economy stays bad. This will keep rates low and insure that more and more money will continue to flow into the markets. Again this may sound shocking to the average person, but it’s not exactly “news” to those who invest their money for a living rather than work a regular salaried job. Frankly yes it’s easy to see why anyone first learning of this closely guarded bit of data would claim that it’s fucked up. It is.

In a nutshell there’s your lesson in finance and econ for the day. Now on to the main point of this post.

Today we are going to focus our attention on the Social Media sector of the investment world. [Again just for those who may not know this: the investment world is divided into sectors FYI. There are many of them and savvy investors are familiar with them all. For example there’s the Semi-Conductor sector (what we refer to as “the Semis”), the Consumer Discretionary sector (Tiffany, Coach, Whirlpool — basically anything that is not essential to the consumer but is purchased when the consumer has discretionary money laying around…), there’s the Oil sector — which is further split between the Refiners and the Oil Services companies, and on and on it goes. Believe it or not, once you enter this world — as with any — it becomes very easy to memorize all the various data points, statistics and acronyms.]

Two sectors that have been red-hot over the last few years have been the Technology sector (usually referred to as “Tech”) and the Social Media sector (often just referred to as simply “Social”). Companies like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG), Twitter (TWTR) and Yelp (YELP) are all part of the Social Media sector and even the most distanced individuals have surely heard the stories over the years about the ridiculous amount of cash people have been making from investing in these “hot companies”. Silicon Valley is on fire at the moment, with venture capital spending reaching all time highs once more pouring money into the latest start-ups hoping that they can eventually turn them into the next Facebook or YouTube.

The word on the street for these companies is Unicorn. You may have even heard the word bouncing around lately as it is one of the many newest trending in the social media world. A Unicorn is any super hot start up company that is raising a ton of investment capital — usually to the tune of one billion or more — in the Valley with the intention of eventually going “public” — all long before the company starts actually making money. The companies just have to show growth in their user base and their “potential” to make money and people will throw millions upon millions of dollars at them. A few of the hottest Unicorns at the moment are Uber, AirBNB, and Pinterest. Yes from the inside it all appears just as blatantly stupid as it does from the outside. But this is just how the markets work. They are completely irrational, as they always have been.

At this very moment analysts and traders on CNBC’s midday show Halftime Report are all discussing the Social Media sector. Primarily because during this latest earnings season social media companies have been getting clobbered. After running up to more than $85 a share Facebook is now trading below $79. Twitter dropped from $55 a share to $38 in one day — you have to imagine having say a million dollars of your clients’ money invested TWTR and having that figure lose almost half of it in less than 24 hours to really understand the ramifications of such a dramatic drop. YELP not to be left behind performed the worst out of all of them so far, dropping from a high of $85 earlier this year to a measly $39 as of today’s trading session — losing 22% of it’s value in just one day and more than 50% from its highs of the year. When you contemplate the insane amount of money invested in these companies by hedge funds, money managers and investment banks — in the case of YELP, a smaller player, we’re talking billions of dollars invested, you begin to fathom just how much money that is to lose in such a short period of time. LinkedIn was the latest social player to kick the bucket: In one day their stock fell from $250 to $203, a 20% loss in less than an hour.

But why? WHY are social media companies taking such a beating? All the talking puppets on CNBC, Bloomberg and FOX Business News continue to talk about these companies with big smiles on their faces as if they are viable investment vehicles — no one ever saying what would be clearly obvious to even the least educated in business and finance: the American consumer is sick and tired of being advertised to, and social media companies make their money, or at least they’re supposed to, from collecting advertising revenue. You see, once upon a time Facebook made mention that it might start charging for it’s services — charging the everyday user to have a Facebook profile and communicate with their friends and family on a regular basis. The backlash could be heard in places as remote as the Himalayas! The week they made this announcement, as ironic as it may seem, the FB newsfeed was filled with posts advertising that the BAN FACEBOOK DAY was soon upon us as everyone and their brother announced that they would not stand to pay a single penny to use Facebook and they would immediately jump ship if such a fee was ever initiated. And that was the end of that idea. Facebook learned a valuable lesson from that stunt — people may love you if you’re free, but that doesn’t mean they have any intention of giving you any of their hard earned money. They don’t love you like THAT.

It turned out that Facebook was not as essential as it thought it might have been and thus they had to go back to the drawing board to figure out just how they were going to actually generate MONEY. See, Facebook WAS hugely successful in terms of it’s popularity amongst users. At one point it reached one BILLION users globally. That’s a phenomenal figure when you consider it for a moment: it translates to almost 20% of every single person on planet earth having a Facebook account of some kind. But the company didn’t make any money. The average person on the street, struggling to just pay their monthly bills always has a tough time understanding concepts like this: how can a company be as big as Facebook (or Amazon or Yelp or Twitter for that matter…) but not actually make any money?!? It seems illogical. And in reality it is. The truth is that these companies BORROW the money they have from what you commonly hear referred to as “angel investors” or venture capitalists. They then use that money to grow their business with the hope that one day they WILL make money… Some do. Many never make it. Amazon — one of the largest companies in the free world still operates at a loss every year. Yep. It’s true. They bring in billions of dollars a year in revenue. But every year they report not a profit but a LOSS, meaning that they spent more than they made. How is this even possible? Simple. They borrow more money and go further into debt based on the idea that one day they actually will make a profit. It’s a funny business. One that just about any average American would love to be able to take advantage of in their own personal finances to be sure. Problem is, banks and venture capitalists aren’t interested in you or me and our ability to pay our bills or even have enough money to eat for that matter. Instead they are interested in future profit potential. That’s life in a nutshell. As unfair as it is, that’s just how it is. You’d have a better chance at borrowing money from a bank — millions even — if you presented them with some dumb idea that showed that you could have half a million “users” by year end 2016 than you would just asking them for money to put food on the table or pay your mortgage. It’s capitalism.

So where were we? Ah yes, Facebook. So here’s Facebook, a simple idea, a dumb idea, at best a rip off of MySpace (remember them?) who was a rip off of Friendster (remember THEM?) showing tremendous growth in “users” but no way to make money from these users. So how to monetize all these users? That was the question….  This was back in the days when Facebook had swept Wall Street by storm by going public and seeing it’s stock price go from $16 to $45 in one day and then having it quickly fall back to $17 where it stayed for a few years, leaving many investors sorry they ever heard of the name. Imagine that kind of a loss in your retirement portfolio. Eventually Facebook got smart and created a very simple advertising vehicle for any and every one to use — a way for users to advertise to each other. “Here’s my Page. Like it!” It didn’t cost that much, you could set the amount you wanted to spend each day, and you could actually see your little ads pop up on the side bar of your Facebook screen now and then. It felt good. And it seemed to generate actual results. It was similar to buying an ad from Google to get more traffic to your website. And we all know how well Google had done… Facebook is presently worth about $178 BILLION dollars. Google is worth roughly TWICE that.

So began the great social media company frenzy. It was 1999 all over again. All a company had to do was show that it could grow its user base, forget about making money or generating a profit, and the investment dollars poured in. Twitter soon leaped onto the scene and ran up to $55 on it’s first day going public from a starting price of around $16. This valued Twitter at about 35 billion dollars overnight. For a company that wasn’t even making a billion dollars a year, nor anything close to it. But it was all about the user growth. Twitter still operates at a loss — meaning that it loses money every year rather than makes it. How would you like that kind of job? TO get paid for losing money? But the pundits had valid points: Twitter WAS popular. People did seem to have a valid interest in and excitement about it. The problem was and still is that that excitement is fleeting. Today’s Twitter is tomorrow’s Snapchat or Tumblr. Remember them? Yahoo purchased Tumblr — and what exactly was Tumblr in the first place? a blog for kids? — for some FIVE BILLION dollars. There’s money they’ll never get back. And Tomorrow’s Snapchat or Tumblr is next week’s Meercat or Periscope. The landscape is constantly changing in the hands of the ever-fickle American consumer. The truth is that they really just don’t CARE.

And that’s the big disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. The average person on Main Street has a life. Family problems, car problems, job worries, relationship woes… They could care less about Facebook or Twitter or Snapchat or Tumblr in the grand scheme of things. When’s the last time you heard anyone even mention Tumblr? But the folks on Wall Street don’t recognize this simple fact of life. These are minor trivialities in the hearts and minds of the average consumer, these “fancy websites” they call social media. They don’t put food on the table. They don’t even offer anything relatively substantial or of value that cannot be had elsewhere. NEW is much more exciting to the consumer than been there done that. It doesn’t mean that mom still won’t keep trying to Message you on Facebook this year. She probably will. But are you really even paying attention anymore?

Environments like Facebook and Twitter have continued to remain semi-entertaining and even useful at times when one has nothing better to do or when there’s big news we want instant access to… But when we’re in the mood for big news, we are NOT interested in ads clogging up our newsfeed. Nor are we interested in ads when we have nothing better to do than scroll through old friends’ attempts at wit or their latest selfie or cat photograph. Let’s face it, social media is fraught with meaningless drivel. Hence the shift back towards more meaningful content platforms like blogs or even texting.

Every social media company is reporting user growth increasing but revenues and profits shrinking. And the simple reason for it is because nobody likes being advertised to. The television world and Wall Street already recognizes this fact as more and more people shift away from traditional TV towards digital alternatives like Netflix or Hulu or flat out stealing online. This is the time of the great peregrination of the consumer away from advertising — why? Because we can. And in an environment like this, you better not have advertising revenue as your main means of generating cashflow or you’re going to be screwed. YELP is the perfect example. Yelp is actually a great tool. Nearly everyone has it loaded on their phone and loves it. The problem is that no one is willing to pay for it. (The music industry is going through a similar shift…) Yelp wants to generate revenue from selling advertising. But the users who use Yelp the most absolutely REFUSE to use Yelp if they believe that any of the data they are reading such as reviews are being influenced in any way by advertising dollars — in other words, people want to believe what they read on Yelp. They want to read ALL the reviews, not just the ones that some company has paid to place there, and they certainly don’t want to find out that companies are able to pay to have negative reviews removed from Yelp. What’s the point of the app then? See the problem? Yelp is basically fucked. A valuable tool with no viable way to make money.

Twitter god love it is in a similar position. I personally use Twitter all day as a means to receive notifications about subjects I am interested in ON MY PHONE. In other words, I set up notifications to come directly to my phone from Twitter about various different subjects or different individuals or even tweets that may mention me — the president of Iran will shoot out an interesting tweet now and then, and where else can one access such data but Twitter? But that doesn’t mean I ever scroll through the Twitter newsfeed or what they call their “Timeline”. The truth is I never do. The notifications come to my phone. I scroll through them. Get the basic gist of what was said. And I move on. All on Twitter’s dime. Or better put on the billions of dollars invested in Twitter by their investors. All without ever paying for Twitter and all without ever seeing an ad. Hell, like most people I’m downright annoyed and pissed off when I see an ad on Twitter. How dare they?!? And yet THIS is precisely how they intend on making their money! From advertising. It’s farcical when you really start thinking about it.

We have to begin to realize and acknowledge that we’ve reached a crossroads in the global economy. We’ve raised a whole generation on free usage based on the idea that we’d make our money from advertising — while at the same time weening them off of advertising on every other platform. There are hundreds of apps now on the market that REMOVE ads from Twitter and Facebook. And one would be right to believe that very soon there will be apps to somehow remove the ads from Pandora and Spotify as well — which is how those companies make the majority of their money as well since they’ve programmed whole generations to believe that music should be free — just about the dumbest thing one could think to do if MUSIC was the one and only product that you wanted to sell in your business. Again, we’re at this major crossroads where at some point soon, something has to give. Investors are going to learn sooner than later — just as they did in the dot com crash of 2000 — that they can’t keep pouring money into businesses who don’t actually make money. And businesses are going to eventually learn that you can’t run a business offering the main product you sell for zero dollars. It’s an illogical business model. And all it’s done is destroy more than one industry, the music business just being one of them. TV is next. Social media never really was in reality. And people are just starting to see that now as these once high flying stocks crash and burn.

As a sidenote with a potential solution, look at the companies who actually DO have a chance at making money. Out of the three Unicorns mentioned above, Pinterest is another Yelp waiting to happen. They’ll garner billions of dollars in investment capital and blow through it all in the hopes of turning all those bored moms and housewives into advertising clicking robots, only to realize that those bored moms and housewives aren’t any more interested in clicking on ads as the rest of us, and they’ll go belly up a year or two after going public IF Wall Street is dumb enough to take them there. But Uber and AIRBnB are different. Both of them actually SELL something besides advertising. Sure there’s a social aspect to both companies. That’s just the new normal — there has to be a social aspect to EVERYthing now. Eventually we’ll have apps where people post their latest and greatest bowel movements for others to see and rate. (If those already don’t exist, which I can’t with certainty…).

But the key is that the social aspect to both Uber and Air BnB is NOT the product itself. It’s a byproduct of the actual product. And that really is the key to this new environment. Social is key. But it can’t be THE key. There has to be an underlying product to be sold. And “to be sold” means to CHARGE MONEY FOR IT. Just as PayPal charges a few pennies on the dollar for every transaction, they’re offering a very valuable product — the ability to exchange money with freinds, family and business associates without ever leaving your home or office, or even your couch for that matter. All from the comfort and ease of your smart phone. That’s smart. Uber and Air BnB are doing the same thing. Small fees. Nothing fancy. But they’re actually making money. And isn’t that the reason to start and run a business in the first place? What companies like Yelp and Twitter are going to do is a mystery. They’ve screwed themselves from the outset with a faulty business model. As have companies like Spotify. The next few months and years are going to be ugly as this grand experiment fails and falls to pieces in rubble all around the feet of Wall Street and Main Street investors. People are already asking “are we in a bubble” everyday now… and truth be told, in the bigger picture of the investing world, no, not quite yet. But in the social media sector we’re beyond bubble territory. We’re in the sloppy frothy messy slime and sludge of a bubble already burst. Most just don’t see it yet. If you’re into shorting, now would be the time…



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Uncategorized advertising, air bnb, angel investors, capital gains tax, facebook, Federal Reserve, investing, online music, paypal, silicon valley, social media, spotify, stocks, The Fed, Twitter, uber, upside down economy, Wall Street, Warren Buffet, yelp

What Will it Take for All of Humanity to THRIVE? Watch This Movie Now!

April 11, 2012

       Yep. Yours truly finally got the chance to sit down and watch some of the movie THRIVE that everyone has been buzzing about over the last few months. I must say right upfront that if this kind of thing just happens to be your “kind of thing” then, like myself, you aren’t necessarily going to find anything new in this film. But you’ll love it just the same. I myself can now sleep. For the first time since observing and predicting that we were shifting into a new age, one I started calling “The Personal Expression Age” in 2004 for the book bearing the same title, I feel like I have finally seen something that truly has the potential to push us over the edge. So yes, it’s that important. Regardless of how much of it you may already know. It’s a damn good flick. One that has the potential to turn into an even cooler movement, or even better help the many movements already in existence continue to grow and expand.  
      We already know who not so secretly (except to the masses) controls planet earth, that UFOs exist and are being hidden from the mainstream by the governing few, that the 9/11 attacks on the US were an inside job and a hoax perpetrated to start several wars for oil and Middle East dominance, that various free energy machines have existed since at least the early part of the 20th Century and that all you have to do is follow the money to see clearly that through surreptitious private banking cartels disguised as government treasury departments (The Federal Reserve), corrupt Big Oil companies, the so-called “world religions”, medical schools and health insurance systems designed and controlled by giant pharmaceutical companies with ignoble intentions and a few very wealthy and powerful families (Warburgs, Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Carnegies, et al.) and other power hungry groups (the British Royals, the Vatican) humankind is being controlled in a not so secret anymore pretend-democracy and has been for centuries. Cont.

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Uncategorized Alex Jones, Big Oil, British Royal Family, Conspiracy theories, david icke, Edgar Mitchell, Federal Reserve, Foster Gamble

A private little world for me… a private little world for you. The online journals and musings of singer-songwriter author and activist Ed Hale. The Transcendence Diaries have been posting regularly online since 2001. Comments are always welcomed. And so are YOU.

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