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Category: Economics

World War III Watch — May 2 – 24, 2023

May 4, 2023

Chinese Malware Hits Systems on Guam. Is Taiwan the Real Target?

The code, which Microsoft said was installed by a Chinese government hacking group, set off alarms because Guam would be a centerpiece of any U.S. military response to a move against Taiwan.

US response to Putin using nuclear weapons would put us at the ‘doorstep of World War III’ — Skynews.com.au

Curtin University political analyst Professor Joe Siracusa says America’s response to if Russian President Vladimir Putin used tactical nuclear weapons would “put us right at the doorstep of World War III”. 

Professor Siracusa’s remarks come after the United States decided to allow the allies to supply F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. 

“I believe that President Putin is very seriously considering his options – one of them might be a tactical nuclear weapon,” he told Sky News Australia. 

“I heard in Europe last week that what would be the American response if President Putin actually used tactical nuclear weapons. 

“The word I heard was that the Pentagon has informed the Kremlin through backchannels that the United States would respond with a massive conventional attack on the Russian Black Fleet which of course would put us right at the doorstep of World War III.”

With Ban on Micron, China Escalates Microchip Clash With U.S.

A Chinese government block on Micron Technology’s memory chips marks how far apart the two economic powers, the United States and China, are drifting on tech policy.

“The Chinese government barred companies that handle critical information from buying microchips made by the Boise, Idaho-based Micron. The company’s chips, which are used for memory storage in all kinds of electronics, like phones and computers, were deemed to pose “relatively serious cybersecurity problems” by China’s internet watchdog after a review.”

China’s $23 Trillion Debt Mess Is About To Get Much Worse

Could be something. Could be nothing. 23 trillion dollars is a lot money. Worse if it’s a country’s debt. Coincidentally it also happens to be just about the same amount as the United States national debt. Countries do crazy things when their debt begins to outweigh their fiscal ability to pay it back, as is and has been the case for the US for a few years now. Truth is, the United States will never be able to pay down its debt. Hell, they won’t even be able to make their annual interest payments on said debt, a disturbing fact that the majority of Americans don’t know, haven’t even thought about, but everyone in government does and has. Obsessively. By far one of the most worrisome aspects of keeping the nation alive without going to war. China, the second largest economy on planet earth is quickly joining the U.S. in regards to its own national debt. Not a cheery or hopeful piece of news.

This Wall Street Journal article below is slightly major. Not unlike many events we’ve observed around the world over the last few months regarding a potentially impending global military conflict. Are we going to wake up tomorrow and see the news flooded with reports about a world war breaking out somewhere? No, definitely not. But the fact that China, Russia and the U.S. are willing to play tit for tat and even attempt to outdo each other in cold war styled retaliations or unprovoked attacks on one another or even make an involuntary mistake that causes major but unintended consequences is enough to raise the hair on the back of your neck. In other words it continues to escalate, as the leaders of said countries continue to wave and smile as if nothing is going on is disturbing. Click link to read whole article

China Puts Spymaster in Charge of U.S. Corporate Crackdown

By Lingling Wei. May 18, 2023, 11:06 am EDT

China’s crackdown on overseas firms has made clear that leader Xi Jinping values security over economic growth. To eradicate any doubt, according to people familiar with the matter, he has put state-security czar Chen Yixin in charge.

The campaign, which has included raids on Chinese offices of U.S. due-diligence firms and questioning of staff at the Bain consulting firm, is sending shock waves across global businesses.

Italy has signaled to the US that it intends to pull out of a controversial Chinese Belt and Road Investment Pact before the end of the year. Read Bloomberg Article Here

For the United States and other Allied Nation Coalition countries the above is good news. Italy is the only G7 country involved in China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative. It’s controversial because it’s a clear play to become the world’s largest most powerful superpower by offering free money, infrastructure, buildings, transportation systems, airports, railways, skyscrapers, basically anything a country could want or need to conduct business. (To learn more about Chinas Belt and Road Initiative, something everyone should have a knowledge and understanding of, click here.) In return they would indirectly if not overtly owe a debt to China. And in the meantime China would have yet more transportation routs and trade deals all over the world, guaranteeing it to be the worlds largest economy and business entity in the world. Italy exiting the deal would be a good thing for those not wanting to see the world too communist. Though what it might inspire China to feel, knowing it was pressure by the United States that compelled Italy’s move, is up in their air. They certainly won’t feel good about it. But overall, good news.

BREAKING: Imran Khan: Ex-PM arrested outside court in Pakistan https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65531648

Polarized Politics Are Tearing Pakistan Apart — Its economy is on the brink, society is politically polarised, millions are still recovering from last year’s devastating floods, terror attacks are increasing and, as inflation soars ever higher, many are struggling to feed themselves and their children.

Two More American Regional Banks On Verge Of Collapse — Marking Three This Week, Six In Last Three Months

BREAKING: After the news that First Republic Bank was failing earlier this week, its limited assets being picked up up JP Morgan for Pennie’s on the dollar, it appears that two more may be soon to follow, Pac West $PACW which has lost 61% of its value in After Hours trading and trading today, and Western Alliance $WAL, which is now down 62% so far today. Both companies’ stocks have been halted numerous times already today. Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp $MCB and Zions Bank $ZION have also been halted because they too are sinking fast on the open market.

*WESTERN ALLIANCE SINKS 58% ON REPORT IT'S EXPLORING SALE…As we contemplate what's going on with $PACW and $WAL and the #FDIC, don't forget that the story of the U.S. banking system is the story of fewer #banks. Used to be 14K banks, now just 4K. pic.twitter.com/b4Y1iIwI2C

— Dan Greenhaus (@DanGreenhaus) May 4, 2023

*WESTERN ALLIANCE HALTED FOR NEWS PENDING

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2023

ONGOING BREAKING: Western Alliance is denying the articles… If true, this is good news.

WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORP: WE ARE NOT EXPLORING A SALE, NOR HAVE WE HIRED AN ADVISOR TO EXPLORE STRATEGIC OPTIONS.

— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) May 4, 2023

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America at War, Current Events, Economics, Politics and Government, World Affairs, World War III america over-spending, American companies in China, American debt, belt and road initiative, China, Chinese companies, congressional budget, debt ceiling debate, debt to GDP, Imran Khan arrested, Iran, Israel, Italy, more regional banks collapsing, natural gas, Pakistan, Putin, Russia, Russia sanctions, Russian oil, Sudan, trade deals with China, trade tariffs, Turkey elections, Turkey president, world war 3, World War III, xi jinping

World War III Watch — Week Of April 24, 2023

May 1, 2023

First Republic Bank Is Seized, Sold to JPMorgan in Second-Largest U.S. Bank Failure In History and the Third U.S. Bank To Go Bankrupt In the Last Three Months

By Rachel Louise Ensign and Ben Eisen Updated May 1, 2023, 4:35 am EDT for Wall Street Journal — https://apple.news/ATrZqns0MTaenbR5eQBFtJw

As I’ve stated in previous posts, although financial and economic news doesn’t immediately inspire images of a “world war” to the mind and senses as much as overtly war-like conflict events, these events may pose more of a threat to global peace than military skirmishes in Ukraine or Taiwan or Syria et al. The working theory being that countries accustomed to decades of peace and prosperity, as we’ve had on planet earth for decades now, may and usually will do everything they can to de-escalate military conflicts to avoid large multinational wars, even when attacked in some way — consider the American journalist just captured and imprisoned by Russia in the last few weeks…, or consider the absolute clusterfu+*k of America’s embarrassing escape out of Afghanistan after 20+ years of fighting and then handing it right back over to The Taliban… all those lives lost…. But no world war…. but when economic desperation sets in in a country, watch out — all cards are off the table and a nation’s typical reaction is to lean hard right nationalistic, start chest thumping about “national pride” and “protecting the homeland from foreign threats” and before we know it, someone somewhere does something to what they perceive as a weaker someone and off to war we go. Despite what they say it’s always economically and financially motivated. They need. And when someone needs, all bets of diplomacy or compromise are off. The United States sadly, as many nations around the world, is facing some scary impending economic consequences. We’re just not talking about it yet. (Insert the potential commercial real estate debt crash that is being discussed under the radar at the moment; if you’re aware of it…..). That’s why this sudden trend of large regional banks going bellyup is important.

Concerns Grow as Tighter Lending Threatens $20 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market

By Ephrat Livni for the New York Times April 6, 2023

The recent banking turmoil added scrutiny to a sector already weighed down by office vacancies, rising interest rates and mounting debt. The turmoil that drove Silicon Valley Bankand Signature Bank out of business last month, rocking the wider banking sector, has analysts bracing for the next possible crisis: the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. Read whole article here

Russian pilots tried to ‘dogfight’ US jets over Syria, US Central Command says

By Oren Liebermann, CNN — https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/29/europe/russia-fighter-pilots-dogfight-us-jets-syria-intl-hnk

US risky business in China

Doing business in China has never been straightforward. But now it’s becoming dangerous for (some) American companies.

On Wednesday, Chinese cops raided the Shanghai offices of US consulting firm Bain, questioning local employees and taking away computers and phones. No explanation was given by the police or the Boston-based firm, but the search was carried out the same day that China expanded its espionage law, giving authorities greater powers to inspect premises and digital devices of local businesses. (This comes a month after China arrested five Americans working at the due-diligence firm Mintz and shut down its Beijing HQ.)

These episodes highlight the increasingly risky environment for US businesses operating in China. As US-China relations get frostier, a whopping 87% of US execs surveyed by the AmCham industry group say they’re pessimistic about the future. [From GZERO MEDIA]

Paraguay holds presidential election with geopolitical ripples

Paraguayans go to the polls Sunday to pick their next president. Domestically, the big story is whether centrist opposition leader Efraín Alegre can beat Santiago Peña from the right-wing Colorado Party, which has almost monopolized power since the country ditched military rule in 1989. But there are also two geopolitical angles to keep an eye on.

First, the election is being closely watched in Taipei and Beijing. If he wins, Alegre has suggested he might switch diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China — meaning that the self-ruled island would lose its last friend in South America. The presidential candidate believes that Taiwan has not invested enough in Paraguay to offset the immense cost of not doing business with China, so he’s made it clear to Tsai Ing-wen: Show us the money or we’ll call Xi Jinping. [From GZERO MEDIA]

A Russian fighter pilot came close to igniting World War III when he fired on a British surveillance plane, since under NATO’s treaty, if one member of the alliance falls victim to an attack, all members of the alliance are obliged to consider it one.https://t.co/JNyDvMj6vz

— The Nation (@thenation) April 27, 2023

First Republic Bank Teeters on the Brink of Collapse — [By Mack Wilowski for Investopedia Published April 26, 2023]. [Transcendence Diaries editorial intro by Ed Hale… Yet another large regional bank in the United States hangs by a nail on its way to bankruptcy. In what might be the third, fourth or fifth (it’s hard to keep track now) major regional bank in the U.S. to head belly-up in the last two months, money’s disappearing faster than The Fed can print or loan it, but it’s still not major news to the majority of Americans. Why? Maybe it’s because there’s no celebrity gossip attached to it. Maybe it’s because it’s not trending on TikTok. Maybe it’s because Americans don’t think anything is important unless the government interiors their regularly scheduled programming — except that no longer exists — to advise them that something really IS important. And the American government isn’t going to do that here. Not now. They’ll let every small, city, county, state and regional bank in America go bankrupt before they’ll ever say a word to the unsuspecting public. By then it’ll be too late. The rich will have gotten all their money out and both The Federal Reserve and The US Treasury will announce that there’s no more money left for the working class. That’s how it always goes. In return, Americans get to claim they enjoy all the benefits and fruits of Capitalism. Strange game. Horrible odds. Why is it important in regards to an impending World War III? The answer seems obvious. When a large regional bank of a country suddenly goes bankrupt, it should be concerning and front page news. Something isn’t right. When 4-5 of them do in a matter of 8-10 weeks, Mission Control we have a serious problem. The last thing in the world you want when confronting an enemy that’s insane and has nothing to lose (Russia), another who literally thinks youre “evil” and calls you The Great Satan (Iran) and another who hold the very financial and economic stability in the palm of its hand (China) is to be going broke faster than you can keep track of. And sure maybe this is just business as usual capitalist housekeeping… But what if it’s not?]

First Republic Bank (FRC) is teetering on the brink of collapse as shares fell to new all-time lows on reports the federal government and the nation’s biggest banks are reluctant to put together a rescue package.

The beleaguered lender reported deposit outflows of more than $100 billion in the first quarter, or 40% of the total.1 That figure would have exceeded 50% if not for a $30 billion injection of uninsured deposits from 11 of the nation’s biggest banks in March.2

In response, shares of FRC plunged almost 50% yesterday, and are down another 30% today. The bank’s market cap fell below $1 billion in intraday trading, a small fraction of its $40 billion peak in November 2021. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio fell as low as 0.7. The stock’s volatility prompted the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to halt trading of FRC 12 times Wednesday.3

To make matters worse, First Republic faces the prospect of losing access to the Fed’s lending facilities if a private deal isn’t reached soon, Bloomberg reported.4 U.S. regulators prefer a private rescue that wouldn’t involve federal authorities seizing the bank, which could further deplete the FDIC’s insurance fund.

Management is scrambling to convince regulators and executives of bigger banks to provide one more financial lifeline. Executives are engaged in a last-ditch effort to improve the bank’s financial standing.

Its options include transferring troubled assets into a “bad bank” or selling off assets at above-market rates. However, other banks may be reluctant to intervene for fear of losing their uninsured deposits and would prefer the FDIC assume control of part of First Republic’s assets.5

First Republic Bank ran into financial difficulty shortly after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in March, as it had the third-highest share (behind the two collapsed lenders) of uninsured deposits that exceeded the FDIC’s $250,000 limit.

FRC shares tumbled 60% in the first trading session after SVB and Signature Bank’s collapse. They’ve since extended their decline, and are down more than 95% year-to-date.

EARNINGS REPORTS AND NEWSFirst Republic to Cut Staff After 40% Plunge in Deposits

BREAKING: U.S. sanctions Russian and Iranian security services for “holding Americans hostage” https://www.axios.com/2023/04/27/russian-iran-sanctions-wrongful-detention

The U.S. is imposing sanctions on the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and the intelligence arm of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), plus four IRGC leaders, for their roles in the wrongful detentions of U.S. citizens, senior U.S. officials told reporters on Thursday.

Why it matters: The officials said this was the first of multiple rounds of sanctions in the works to punish and deter those who would hold Americans hostage. The practical implications of this step are unclear as both organizations are already under U.S. sanctions.

  • These were the first sanctions announced under an executive orderPresident Biden signed last year to provide new tools to help bring hostages home. 

What they’re saying: “We do think it’s significant that the first round of sanctions are being announced specifically for this type of behavior, because we’re really concerned about this type of behavior,” a senior official said.

  • The sanctions package was already in the works before Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was detained on espionage charges, which the U.S. and WSJ both say are baseless, a senior official said.

Bloomberg News :: BREAKING :: April 27, 2023 5:56 am Germany in Talks to Limit the Export of Chip Chemicals to China — The move could affect German companies including Merck, BASF. Chancellor Scholz has been striking a harder line on China. Germany is in talks to limit the export of chemicals to China that are used to manufacture semiconductors as Berlin steps up efforts to reduce its economic exposure to the Asian nation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/germany-in-talks-to-limit-the-export-of-chip-chemicals-to-china

April 27, 2023 4:10 am With Zelensky call, Xi Jinping steps up bid to broker peace – but does he have a plan? https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/27/china/china-ukraine-xi-jinping-zelensky-call-analysis-intl-hnk

Hong Kong (CNN) — A long-awaited phone call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday has received a tentative welcome in Washington and parts of Europe for its potential to increase dialogue toward resolving Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine. It also marks the most concrete step made to date by China to take up the role of mediator that it has for months alluded to playing. But the hour-long conversation, believed to be the first between the two leaders in the fourteen months since Russia invaded Ukraine, also comes with few tangible proposals for how China might help to bridge the devastating, war-torn divide between the two countries. And its timing – at a moment when Beijing is acutely focused on strengthening ties with Europe amid cratering relations with the United States – also suggests there are more drivers than just peace in China’s calculus, analysts say. Ties have been frayed thin since the outbreak of the war, as European leaders have watched in dismay while Beijing refused to condemn the invasion and instead bolstered its economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow, including joining the Kremlin in blaming NATO for fueling the conflict. Efforts from Beijing to repair those relations took a major stumble earlier this week after China’s top diplomat in Paris suggested in a televised interview that former Soviet states have no status under international law – seen as a potential nod to Putin’s view that Ukraine should be part of Russia.

One of China’s most popular and downloaded apps on the App Store, Pinduoduo, listed on the NASDAQ Exchange, has the ability to spy on its users, say experts —- https://apple.news/AJGW-QsJEQb-M9-WGDwccog

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World War III Watch – Week Of April 14, 2023

April 17, 2023

:: BREAKING :: April 20, 2023 10:36 am Nicaragua president Daniel Ortega appeared on a televised interview on COMBATE in Nicaragua today. What he said was no surprise to regular readers of these pages. But to the rest of the world, it came as quite a shock at first. And yet what was so surprising were just how many people once they viewed it, declared how much sense it actually makes. The realization is awakening in mass consciousness so quickly ….

Nicaragua President DANIEL ORTEGA: “World War III is already underway. This is World War III. Why? Because it is the United States and Europe using Ukraine to seek how to disappear Russia. The same thing that happened in World War II… and the first troops that entered the bunker then in Germany were the troops of the Soviet Union. They were the first to enter. In other words, the victory, the great defeat and the victory of the peoples rested on the Russian people, on the Red Army, on the Soviet people. And now we are seeing the same story…

The Russian Federation is fighting a battle for peace. It’s not against a nation. It’s against the fascists, the Nazis who staged a coup d’état there in Ukraine and settled there. It’s Hitler’s children who are ruling there… meanwhile, NATO harassing Russia with more weapons, more bases, and the United States leading the orchestra of international terrorists…”

Nicaragua President DANIEL ORTEGA: "World War III is already underway. This is World War III. Why? Because it is the United States and Europe using Ukraine to seek how to disappear Russia. The same thing that happened in World War II… and the first troops that entered the… pic.twitter.com/1leqANzwgV

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) April 20, 2023

APOCALYPSE VOW —Ukraine Joining NATO ‘Guaranteed’ to Start World War III, Russian Official Says

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-joining-nato-guaranteed-to-start-world-war-iii-russian-official-says

“The war in Ukraine is “guaranteed” to escalate into World War III if Kyiv is allowed to join NATO, a Russian Security Council official said Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise announcement that he had made a fast-track bid for membership into the military alliance just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory on Sept. 30. All of NATO’s 30 members would have to approve Ukraine’s bid, making full membership of the defense group a long way off. “Kyiv is well aware that such a step would mean a guaranteed escalation to World War III,””

BREAKING :: U.S. Treasury’s Yellen Says U.S. China Relationship Is Clearly At A ‘Tense Moment’

YELLEN SAYS U.S. CHINA RELATIONSHIP IS CLEARLY AT A 'TENSE MOMENT' -JOHNS HOPKINS SAIS SPEECH

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 20, 2023

EXCLUSIVE —- Pakistan makes its first purchase of discounted Russian oil —- https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusivepakistan-buys-its-first-cargo-of-discounted-russian-crude-oil-3060193 https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1649056913756389377?s=46&t=mnbi41BC-wcQNxvdeSy6nQ

“The U.S. dollar historically has been the currency of oil trade, but the Ukraine war has eroded its dominance as Russia avoids receiving a currency it has been largely blocked from using by Western sanctions.”

Well, we knew this. Or at least thought we did. And it’s turning out to be true. It doesn’t take much observation to see that neither the millennial federation nor Gen Z have any interest in suddenly turning patriotic, donning some itchy uniforms and traveling great distances to defend America’s strange form of capitalism-gone-wild-but-let’s-still-call-it-democracy half way around the world. One too many Vietnam movies for them. One too many “Iraq has WMDs” for them. And far too much desire to appear to be an Influencer or go viral or be a reality TV star or be a TikTok star or smoke a blunt for 15 minutes. Likes and Views baby do not demand serving in a military.

Kids these days are all too aware of the downsides of enlisting. Potentially getting killed, for one.https://t.co/TjHiGKiBDX

— The Nation (@thenation) April 20, 2023

And then there’s this. An expose’ about how the United States still spends more than every other nation on earth combined on continuing to build up its military. Nothing new there. The problem? It’s an old fashioned, large, clunky, antiquated military better suited to the 20th century. Already the U.S. and it’s various infrastructure is being bombarded by cyberattacks on a near daily basis to which it is completely unable to defend itself against. And that’s during, ostensibly, peacetime. Imagine if these foes continued their attacks as this quickly growing lead up to WW III were to heat up even more, which they will. The risk, the one that everyone in the world seems to see — especially America’s ever expanding enemies — except the bigwigs hiding behind the big doors who seem to be controlling everything in the US of A, is that Russia or China or Iran or any of the other countries now firmly entrenched in the New Communist Alliance will sit 2-3 capable 14 year old tech geniuses down in a little room, perhaps in Cuba or Venezuela, and order them to “take out all the major power grids in the US, along with their water mains and internet just for fun, and the American military response will be to roll out a battalion or two of tanks and a few thousand infantry men. And as funny as this hyperbolic image is, it’s also deeply sad and troubling because of just how true it rings in the hearts and minds of the few left with their wits still about them or smart enough to get it. After the Great Dumbing Down America went through as a side effect of the self-demolition of the Republican Party and their naked criminal-mastermind of an emperor, Donald Trump, it is hard to fathom that there are many. Americans of course won’t notice any of this because they’ll be far too busy hypnotized by their Netflix or their Super Bowl or their $500 a seat Taylor Swift concert or their TikTok. You know, as we write this this evening I can still remember the foolhardy comments I received four years ago when I stated i would never be so naïve and short sighted as to download TikTok onto my own phone nor let my kids do it and at the same time suggested what a genius move it was strategically for China to attack the United States so transparently right out in the open through an app, placed right into the greedy grubby hands of every American absolutely free. How many friends replied with snide or sarcastic remarks such as “yeah right, because the Chinese think I’m so important they want to spy on ME…”. Well that mission has been accomplished. We could write a small book on all the damage that “little app” has already put the country in; but much more importantly it’s about what a ticking time bomb it was set up to be and how now that it’s made the rounds through every digital nook and cranny of the entire populace, corporation, organization and government office it’s fully prepared to achieve any number of the countless nefarious missions China planned for it. Pure bloody genius. The bigger picture here is less about the impending global super-conflict heating up, and more about who the winners and losers are going to be, and given the context and data we now possess, just how completely ill-prepared the United States is for it.

From TIME Magazine :: America’s Military Is Unprepared for Our Age of Advanced Technology — Equipped to face the threats of yesterday, our military needs to reform to keep us safe from the threats of tomorrow —- https://apple.news/ADBcJh1l-QsWQZk1yAdM2BA

For current readers of the Diaries, specifically the new series, World War III Watch, the release of this new article in The Nation today should feel like vindication. For it is. As it very accurately echos everything this writer has been saying here for over six months. Though with a few glaring differences. They are taking a much more conservative approach to the events we’ve been witnessing than I have. They also seem to be operating under the misconception that president Joe Biden “has committed” the United States to anything, let alone “a four-front global crusade”. For those that have seen or heard Joe Biden anytime in the last year or two, it is clear that’s simply not possible. Physically, not possible. They’re also presupposing that the United States is somehow in charge of this current impending global military conflict. Probably because they’re accustomed to the US being at the forefront of most large scale global conflagrations — it’s probably not occurred to them that the United States is in the backseat on this one. At best going for a ride, albeit not driving, not choosing the destination, not giving directions and in the backseat. At worst they’re in the trunk, being taken for a ride by enemies who want nothing less for them than the end of their superpower status forever.

Biden has now committed us to a four-front global crusade against Russia, China, Iran, and a continually shifting terrorist hit list. None of these “enemies” threaten the survival or well-being of Americans.https://t.co/l0Dw9zKwMt

— The Nation (@thenation) April 19, 2023

I’ve been writing about this, first bubbling, now obvious & ever-growing story, in a series called World War III Watch in the Transcendence Diaries for 6 months. I disagree w the notion that “none of these threaten the well-being of Americans”. @evangershkovich comes to mind. ‬

Yet more poking at the Russian Bear by the West with yet even more dangerous, disturbing and completely unnecessary events. The sovereign nation of Russia, one of the oldest conti

US LOOKS FORWARD TO WELCOMING SWEDEN TO BECOME A FULL NATO MEMBER BEFORE JULY SUMMIT: U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY

— Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) April 19, 2023

Russian foreign minister visits Latin America —- Russia is moving fast now in their travels around the world to collect both more new countries, and some longtime allies such as Cuba and Venezuela, for the New Communist Alliance they seem to be forming with now-seemingly global Head Honcho, China. No longer afraid or intimidated by the once mighty United States, both countries are on a mission to force those lines in the sand and see where everyone stands. America and a deflated Europe suddenly appear small, with the EU battling persistent inflation and weaker global influence, and the United States seemingly constantly battling itself in a strange Cold War Civil War. China and Russia know this is their time if there’s ever going to be one. Details in article below:

Sergey Lavrov spent Monday in Brasilia, where recently elected President “Lula” Da Silva has already irked Washington by both-sidesing the Ukraine war and refusing to sell weapons to Kyiv.

For Russia, it’s no small thing that one of the world’s largest democracies is at least sympathetic to the Kremlin’s version of the Ukraine story. The fact that Russia exports lots of fertilizer to Brazil’s powerful farm industry probably helps.

Lula, meanwhile, has long sought to carve out a role as a leader of the Global South, where many view the faraway Ukraine war chiefly through the lens of food and energy price inflation and are skeptical of American arguments about defending democracy or the “rules-based order.” Still, he has to tread carefully – osgringos are Brazil’s largest foreign investors and key partners on Lula’s climate change agenda.

While Lavrov thanked Lula for his support, the White House, in a tough rebuke, accused the Brazilian president of “parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda without at all looking at the facts.”

After Brasilia, Lavrov will visit old Kremlin comrades in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. All are countries where US sanctions have enabled Russia to gain significant footholds in energy, arms sales, and general “rogue-state” bonhomie.

But beyond that, Russia lags well behind the region’s two major external players: China and the US. See our GT below for more.

But it’s not as simple as that. America is still the economic super power in Latin America, by leaps and bounds. See the Eurasia Group article and graphic below.

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is on a mission to shore up support wherever it can – particularly among rogue and non-aligned states. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is currently jet-setting across Latin America in a bid to rally support for Moscow’s war effort and send a message to the Americans about its own inroads in the region. But when push comes to shove, Moscow has minimal economic clout in Latin America compared to Washington, resulting in less diplomatic leverage. We take a look at Latin American states’ trade ties with the US and Russia.

FBI arrests two alleged Chinese agents and charges dozens with working inside US to silence dissidents —- https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/17/politics/fbi-chinese-agents

TAIWAN TO BUY 400 US ANTI-SHIP MISSILES INTENDED TO REPEL CHINA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 17, 2023

CHINA WARNS OF 'MAJOR' MILITARY ACTION IN YELLOW SEA TUESDAY…

— FxMacro (@fxmacro) April 17, 2023

CHINA MARITIME SAFETY ADMINISTRATION: MAJOR MILITARY ACTIVITY TO BE CONDUCTED IN YELLOW SEA ON APRIL 18 BETWEEN 0900-1200 LOCAL TIME

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 17, 2023

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World War III Watch — Week Of April 10, 2023

April 11, 2023

It was a fast-paced, busy week of world affairs and events leading up to a potential mass global military conflict, or at the very least and more easily recognizable, a major pivot from the United States to China as the worlds new superpower. (This is important in the larger scope of World War III Watch because the United States cannot afford to not be the worlds leading superpower. Literally. Due to their astronomical debt, the largest one in human history, their staggering Debt/GDP ratio, that statistically is and will be impossible to ever get out of withOUT a war (that they must win) and the now suddenly very real possibility that the US dollar will no longer be “the worlds reserve currency”, one can be sure that behind every closed door in America’s over-inflated government, the main topic of discussion is how to maintain a shred of decency as the world pivots to China as its new leader, punctuated by declarations that this simply cannot stand because the country cannot afford it, with surely plenty of quiet suggestions that “we all know what we must do now…”.)

What has held up the United States for decades as the worlds superpower in the face of the financially bankrupt state it’s been in, is two-fold: the power, might and sheer massive size of its military, plus the shocking number of military bases and black ops sites it has all over the world — over 1500 at last count, 3 times the number of the second most, Russia, and #2, the dominance of the U.S. Dollar, or “the Petrodollar” so named because of the forcibly mandatory rule that all nations on planet earth must use the US Dollar to conduct its business in the energy sector, to buy or sell OIL. Without these two painful facts for the rest of the world, the United States would have ceased being the leading superpower decades ago. There are plenty of other countries who have their fiscal house in order and are even running surpluses rather than record setting debt, with less corruption and much happier citizenry. For all the patriotic speak, mainly from the slave states (now referring to themselves as “red states”), Americans, as can be seen from any viewpoint anywhere in the world, are extremely unhappy. Especially with their government. So too are the majority of world leaders regarding the American government. Unhappy displeased disappointed discouraged disgusted delightfully gleeful about how quickly the house is crumbling. Even with concentration camps, communism and slave labor, other countries are lining up to form alliances with China simply because they appear to be strong, have clearly stated realizable goals in front of them and have their house in order.

AND because, unlike the United States, who is as corrupt and duplicitous as any other empire on earth but pretends it’s God’s gift to freedom fairness and Justice when it clearly isn’t. Whereas China doesn’t back away from being upfront about who it is. Corrupt and murderous? Sure. Like every other country in the world today. But they don’t hide it. They defend their being so and the reasons why. But they don’t pretend to be something they are not.

America has been doing this “believe what we say not what we do” dance for decades. And to many other countries, this charade is beginning to smell bad, especially in the new millennium.

Where else are the people and even the government itself willing to elect a highly suspect, piggish and pathologically narcissistic, ludicrously ignorant and criminal thug who giddily incites violence and treasonous government overthrows at the drop of a hat for president? In America it is something the people are killing themselves fighting over. In the rest of the world it is something the people shake their head in shock over. Or laugh about. The truth is, America, in the state it’s in now, doesn’t deserve to be the worlds leading superpower.

As the CNN article below details, leaders from nations all over the globe are flocking to Beijing to meet with and pay their respects to China president Xi Jinping, seeing him as the world’s new de facto leader, a spot once held only for American Presidents since the end of World War II. But times have changed. No one is lining up to pay homage to or kiss the ring of Gentle Joe Biden, no matter how civil, respectable or noble the man is. It is sad that this landed at his feet in the last few years of his life. One of the most major and important transformations in modern history, one that Gentle Joe is clearly not adept enough to handle now. And his VP, well there probably isn’t a soul on earth who wants to even see her try.

So the question remains. Will the United States allow China and Russia and this New Communist Alliance to take over? Or will the military step in and force a war as they’ve done so many times in the past in order to try to maintain America’s global dominance? The answer is yet to come. Article directly below:

World leaders are lining up to meet Xi Jinping. Should the US be worried? https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/china/xi-jinping-lula-china-brazil-world-leaders-visit-beijing-intl-hnk-mic

As has been stated numerous times throughout the last 100 years, without the US Dollar being the (albeit mandatory) “worlds reserve currency, the United States would be truly bankrupt — as it is already, the only difference being that it is still able to pull off the “superpower” charade due to every country in the world being forced to use the U.S. dollar for energy, oil and other trade purchases. That and it’s military might. In other words, in both cases, the threat of military action by the most militarily powerful country in human history. A few articles from just this week, below, follow this quickly unfolding story,,,

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Lula in China to ditch US dollar

The Brazilian president lashes out at the US dollar’s dominance in the world economy, while on a visit to China.

Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/7h1TYXZOQt pic.twitter.com/JLWEPGJLOb

— Highlights (@highlightsnews1) April 14, 2023

JUST RELEASED: One Hour Ago, Russia’s Terrifying Message To The USA. Russia’s Foreign Ministry Claimed Today That The USA and Russia Are Now Formally In “a Hot Phase Of a Cold War” and Urges The U.S. to Re-Start Some Kind Of Dialogue Before It Is Too Late. But the United States and NATO Are Not Interested In Any Kind Of Peace Talks. —- This is what is being heard in government houses all over the world at this time. Watch video below for more….

BREAKING :: CHINA, RUSSIA TO EXPLORE FREE TRADE FEASIBILITY: CHINA Ministry of Foreign Affairs —- China and Russia affirm economic cooperation for the next several years — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/china-and-russia-affirm-multi-year-economic-cooperation.html

And this: Russia and China are being driven together as the chasm with the West deepens — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/russia-and-china-are-becoming-ever-closer-and-the-west-should-worry.html

Chinese Foreign Minister Meets With Taliban Leaders On First Visit To Kabul Since Militant Group Seized Power From United States

So let’s get this straight: the United States government spent 20 years, hundreds of billions of dollars and unknown numbers of American soldiers who lost their lives or are permanently wounded or maimed to accomplish nothing except to secure a permanent position of power for the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the end Afghanistan is now more free for the authoritarian Taliban to own the country outright since the U.S. did all their dirty work for them, i.e. swept and cleaned out the county of and and all potential resistance groups. China, the largest wealthiest authoritarian nation on earth, sees the opening and has begun to court the Taliban leaders of Afghanistan with support, access, resources, infrastructure and money, seeing an opportunity to bring them into the fold of the New Communist Alliance they’re forming — a wildly successful mission that they’re moving on and making tremendous progress with at an alarmingly fast rate, while the United States is sadly still courting little broken former empires of the 20th century. Shockingly short sighted. An alliance of any kind between China and Afghanistan will be beneficial for both countries. And disadvantageous for the United States and other Western nations. And how will China fund this new venture? Well besides the aforementioned hundreds of billions the United States unwittingly contributed to China’s becoming the new big brother to Afghanistan through its 20 years long war there, 100% of the necessary funds going forward will come from the hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars China gets from the U.S. every year. America has become completely dependent on China economically and financially. Whether it’s the billions China makes from the US housing the majority of its manufacturing there (talk of onshoring or reshoring manufacturing back to the United States is just that, talk. Very cheap talk. Nothing but bread and candy politicians throw out to the unknowing working classes during political campaigns and rallies. Bringing manufacturing back to the US would bankrupt the already bankrupt Country in less than a year. Besides the insane amount of money China makes from the United States through selling its manufacturing and slave labor, China also provides the United States with its largest consumer base for American companies who simply couldn’t stay in business and do well without the Chinese consumers. China knows this. And they use it to their own benefit and to the detriment of the U.S. Even subtle and slight manipulations of what America is allowed to export and sell to chinese consumers has a major affect on the bottomline of America’s largest companies. And China knows this. So as China and Russia continue to build up both their war chest for what they see is an already very hot Cold War with the West, and the ever increasing number of nations joining their New Communist Alliance, ironically it’s the United States who are footing the bill for it all. https://www.rferl.org/a/chinese-fm-visits-taliban-afghanistan/31768166.html

And this: A Year After Taliban Takeover, What Are China’s Plans For Afghanistan? — https://www.rferl.org/a/china-plans-for-afghanistan-year-after-taliban-takeover/31989722.html

INSIDE DETAILS OF THE HISTORIC RUSSIA CHINA AND IRAN SECRET DEAL —- https://www.firstpost.com/vantage/inside-details-of-russia-iran-and-chinas-secret-deal-vantage-with-palki-sharma-6752

The below of course is total bullshit. There are plenty of alternatives to Ukraine joining NATO. Like Ukraine NOT joining NATO and neimging us one step closer to WW III. Putin has already expressed his opposition to being surrounded by NATO countries on all sides of his borders. Which is one of his stated reasons for invading Ukraine— that and getting access to all their energy machinery which has been stored there for decades. Why the blatant disrespect for Russia’s sovereignty? With Finland already now joining NATO to cover Russia’s northern border, does anyone think Russia is going to just lie down and accept being surrounded by NATO country’s without a fight? Would the United States? Of course not. It’s time the US and EU started leveling with its people about what’s really going on here, what’s at stake, and more importantly stopped all this nonsense. And Zelensky and Ukraine need to start fighting their own battles.

UKRAINIAN DEFENCE MINISTER REZNIKOV: THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO UKRAINE'S ACCESSION TO NATO

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 13, 2023

Putin’s Russia, Xi Jinping’s China Reportedly In Secret Talks To Supply Iran With Sanctioned Missile Fuel —- https://www.smartnews.com/p/4536896343376924133?placement=article-preview-social&share_id=BMFZlI

And there it is (below). In one of the many steps the world has helplessly witnessed towards China taking Taiwan back after all these years, as many as possible disclosed in these pages, newswires just announced China will start imposing No Fly Zones just north of Taiwan starting on April 16, 2023. Clearly a response to the United States hosting a high ranking Taiwanese leader to come to the US and meet with various politicians. Was it a mistake for the United States to make such a paper tiger move considering it can’t even get its own house in order? Unless they aren’t telling us all something(s), which has been their modus operendi for time immemorial so a caveat on this one, yes clearly it was a huge mistake. It played right into China’s hands and plans re Taiwan and gave them the perfect reason and ammunition they needed to take all the actions they have against Taiwan that we’ve seen over the last two weeks in ostensible retaliation for said trip.

CHINA PLANNING TO IMPOSE NO-FLY ZONE NORTH OF TAIWAN APRIL 16-18: SOURCES

— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) April 12, 2023

Discussed in the first post on the subject matter, Fractional Reserve Banking + the United States having the largest debt in human history at over 20 trillion dollars + the largest budget in history now topping 1 trillion + one of the highest Debt/GDP ratios on planet earth + other large nations, some of whom are part of the New Communist Alliance, working feverishly to undermine and usurp the U.S. dollar from being the world’s most popular and reserve currency = a very important aspect of an impending potential global military conflict. More in the video below:

The decline in bank lending looks bad, down $100b in two weeks, the biggest two week fall since '01 (since '09 on a % basis.) But loans are still 18% above the pre-pandemic level. Some adjustment was inevitable. Will need to be sustained and not replaced by other sources to have… pic.twitter.com/ta1qdv6LE1

— Steve Liesman (@steveliesman) April 11, 2023

#BREAKING: Finally with the end of a 5-day long military exercise, #Azerbaijan Army started its military operation against #Armenia today. Clash in the border area between Lachin and Sivnik province of #Armenia is now started. pic.twitter.com/h8n4NqerYg

— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) April 11, 2023

Lindsey Graham: 'Let's Fight China!' – today on the Liberty Report:https://t.co/z80hZoxMxe

— Ron Paul (@RonPaul) April 11, 2023

Although not specifically evidentiary to an impending global military conflict, Myanmar, or Burma, has been a concern for many for a decade as it so easily illustrates the intense struggle humanity still faces between a world of democracy, fairness, justice and human rights or one shaped by military juntas, communism, dictatorships and authoritarianism.

Myanmar Military Attack —- At least 50 people, including civilians, were killed in central Myanmar early Tuesday after the nation’s military junta launched an airstrike on an antigovernment ceremony outside the city of Mandalay, the nation’s second-largest. Members of the People’s Defense Force—the armed wing of the opposition, prodemocracy National Unity Government—were opening a local office in Pa Zi Gyi village when fighter jets attacked.

Myanmar—also known as Burma—has been fighting one of the world’s longest-running civil wars, a conflict driven by the country’s nearly 100 ethnic minorities (see background). Despite a brief period of multiparty democracy last decade, a coup in 2021 returned the southeastern Asian country to military rule, prompting lawmakers from jailed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s party to form an alternative government, which today reportedly controls almost half of the country’s territory. 

The junta has promised to hold elections in August of this year after extending a February 2021 state of emergency for the third time.

Fareed Zakaria makes mention of the New Cold War the world has found itself in, a fact that most people still don’t understand or recognize. I take it one step further obviously and have a feeling we’re just getting started. A new world order is in already deep in transition from western forces to the New Communist Alliance, but it won’t happen without a fight.

Not your father’s cold war https://t.co/jf11qCK3zo

— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) April 12, 2023

In a deal that was the United States’ to broker under normal circumstances in times past, China now takes the lead in today’s world…

NEW: #Iran Re-Opens Gates of Embassy in #Saudi Arabia after 7 years of closure. 6 weeks after China brokered deal https://t.co/HJd6HxSVJ5

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) April 12, 2023

Not “directly” related to a massive global military conflict A to B per se, unless you’ve been reading these pages closely of course. Then it makes perfect sense. As with all global empires and superpowers throughout human history, the United States amassed an enormous debt, in fact the largest one the world has ever seen in 6,000 years of recorded history; so big in fact that it has been unable to run the business of its government or the nation itself without doing so from a HUGE budget deficit every year. Put simply the United States of America is broke. Not just broke but busted. Bankrupt. Destitute. More so than any other country on planet earth. The only things keeping it going are two: 1. The fact that it’s currency the US Dollar or USD was corruptly forced upon the world and every country in it to be “the world’s currency”, i.e. other nation states are forced to use their own currencies to BUY US dollars in order to buy or sell energy and oil. Incipient? Definitely. But very beneficial for Americans. The ——

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World War III Watch

March 17, 2023

For me it started during the summer of 2021, approximately a year and a half ago. It wasn’t based on news or data, but only an intuitive feeling at the time. Throughout the morning that day I had been feeling a disturbing intuitive sense that something was off regarding international relations and global conflicts. Something bad was about to happen globally and it was major.

I walked into the kitchen where Princess Little Tree (PLT) was cooking all morning and I said “there’s going to be some kind of a war honey. Something big. Like a world war. I can feel it.” But Princess Little Tree is accustomed to my outlandish declarations. She responded by asking me if something had happened that led me to think that. I told her no, it’s just a really strong intuitive sense. As the feeling continued to intensify I continued to repeat to her throughout the day how I was sensing something big, some kind of major global altercation. At some point she said “well let’s note it and put it on the calendar”. So we did. On a hot august day in the summer of 2021. We wrote “PBJ (Prince Baby Joon) sees a world war coming”.

And that was it. Time passed. And we didn’t hear or see much in the way of anything that supported this idea. Until more than a year later when Russia invaded Ukraine. That in and of itself did not raise the hairs on the back of my neck. We had seen this movie too many times before, especially during the Obama years. Then it stopped once Trump was elected and Russia suddenly was on its best behavior. (Interesting that…) But for some reason it got everyone else alarmed. Especially the United states and Europe.

Once the United States and Europe started acting as if the safety and security of the entire world was being threatened by this Russian invasion of Ukraine (it’s not), I started commenting, softly and slowly at first and then more intensely, “this is the beginning of what I was seeing. We’re literally watching in real time what could easily throw us into a world war…”. It wasn’t Russia invading Ukraine. It was the fact that the US and most European countries were so willing to jump into the conflict by suddenly backing Ukraine as if they too were in a war against Russia.

Which of course they were, as the rest of us would soon begin to realize as the months wore on. Pretty soon it was hard to tell who was at war. Sure Ukraine held the little name badge showing they were an official team in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But the United States is the country actually funding and weaponizing the whole thing. And this along with Europe’s contributions to Ukraine and directly opposing Russia was and will remain historically one of the biggest foreign policy errors in human history. And at this point anyone who claims that the United States is not at war with Russia is not paying attention. Or in denial. Or lying.

[Right here I’m going to tell you that exploring the reasons why the United States decided to go to war against Russia (simply put it’s payback to Zelensky for keeping his mouth shut to protect both Trump and Biden from the criminal repercussions they’d receive if the full stories of their past actions in and involving Ukraine were revealed) is vital but not pertinent to the bigger picture of this impending world war, because this has spiraled so far out of control now, in so many different directions that the US didn’t foresee, that even the strange and abnormal hero status and protection that the United States has bestowed upon Zelensky is not as important as everything else we’re witnessing that appears to be leading us into a large scale global super-conflict that threatens to be the biggest and deadliest in human history.]

Late yesterday, after a slew of concerning events that further showed how quickly the world is moving toward war, the president of Serbia gave a chilling warning about it: “…this is an escalation that has no end. I’m afraid that we may be heading towards the biggest conflict in the history of the world. I wonder if anyone is smart enough not to go through with this, and if anyone understands whatever the consequences of this will be,” Vucic said.

Friday March 17 2023 will go down in history books as the day that signaled the world was headed down a path toward another world war. Out of everything we heard through the newswires Friday that signaled this dark moment, perhaps none was more important nor more important than hearing that the International Criminal Court (ICC) of the Netherlands issued a formal arrest warrant for Russian President Putin for war crimes. It is one of the most surreal and ludicrous actions we’ve seen so far building up to the harsh realities now facing us.

Surreal because one cannot imagine anyone so short sighted to issue an arrest warrant against the president of a sovereign nation, especially not under the circumstances of said president being in the middle of a war with another country. The implications are immense. President Putin is immune to such an action. As any president of any other sovereign nation is. At best this is a foolhardy political ploy that will feed only the hearts and minds of celebrity-minded media maggots with nothing better to talk about. The same anchors reporters and pundits who play Who’s Popular with American politicians every night instead of reporting the news.

To see how ludicrous the action is imagine for a moment if the ICC issued an arrest warrant for American President Joe Biden. The United States would immediately issue a press release decrying the act as not legally binding and not lawfully applicable to the president. Just as the Kremlin did. They would also issue a warning to the ICC and the 123 member countries to not move forward with any such actions in that direction or face the consequences. Just as the Kremlin did.

Most importantly if anyone did take this arrest warrant seriously and do anything to president Biden, the US military would take such swift action to protect our president that it would be over in less than 30 minutes. It would also spell the beginning of the end for that country. One can only imagine the destruction that would befall said country should they do anything that stupid. The same thing would happen if anything were to happen to president Putin. As it should be. It would ring the bells of the first shots that began World War III. If we do not collectively honor the national sovereignty of other countries and their leaders, no matter how much we might disagree with them, then we don’t deserve freedom and liberty as a people. We might as well start building the jail cells to prepare for the forever-1984 world we’d be creating.

After nearly a year of talking about this, trying to get others to see what’s happening, how obvious it is, how deadly it’s going to be, we finally get some confirmation, someone else, someone with a little credibility on the world stage, warning of the same thing. Because it has become obvious now to anyone paying attention.

Many other countries around the world haven’t been as withholding and have already boldly stepped forward to declare their allegiance to one side or the other for all the world to see. Much of it has happened in the last month. I have been shocked how quickly it’s unfolding now. What started out as nothing more than a feeling, turned into a hunch, and then avalanched into a reality composed of a daily series of events that we can now track and dread.

The nations of the world are quickly forming alliances with each other, choosing which side they’re on and filing into place in preparation for this coming world war. The United States seems to be the only nation who hasn’t come clean with its citizens or the media or the rest of the world in admitting what they see happening and what they plan on doing about it.

My guess is that the powers that be in Washington know very well what’s happening, regardless of how dumb and clueless those in the White House, senate and congress appear to be to the rest of us. My hope is that those who need to know do know and they’re just playing it close to the vest to delay the chaos and panic that would ensue if it came out.

In the last month we’ve seen a multitude of incidents announced around the world that should be terrifying to those paying attention, which is the primary problem: not many people are paying attention. And I dont believe that even the events of this week’s news will change that. I’m guessing that for the most part people are waiting to be told by their favorite American news network that they need to be paying attention. Obviously a serious miscalculation for those who care about such things. (And who doesn’t?)

News networks have done a decent job of feeding us about 35% of the facts and news-bites that are important and pertinent to this impending global conflict, but none have dared to analyze the data and report what governments, think tanks and experts are surely already discussing behind closed doors. They’re still spending 99% of their airtime stupefyingly debating political nonsense about the American president or congress or senators they like or dislike. It’s beyond inane the way politics have turned into the favorite plaything of news-as-entertainment. It’s obliterated the way people view and think about world news.

Especially in the climate we’re in now. I’m nothing. A working class singer-songwriter. If someone like me can already start putting the pieces together and notice the world is getting damn close to the largest global conflict in world history, then surely journalists and news producers can. But they refuse to. Or better put they refuse to acknowledge they’re able or willing to. That’s a sure path to mutually agreed upon self destruction for both the media and the people and world they claim to serve.

The media and the government have been so preoccupied with their self professed war with Russia that they forgot the United States has already been in a Cold War with China for years. The potential for China, the second largest economy in the world and third largest super power, already at war with the United States and proud of it, to suddenly form an alliance with Russia, the second largest super power, was almost inevitable. But something we all hoped we’d never see.

That took place yesterday when we woke up to the news that China’s president Xi Jinping is heading off to Russia next week to sign new alliance agreements with Putin. This is the news that we have been dreading.

For context many people think the United States won World War II. What they forget is that Great Britain, France, the United States, along with Russia and China won World War II. So what is a World War III for the United States going to look like with those two superpowers fighting on the other side.

Lest we forget that the United States has a questionably spotty if not a downright bad record of being able to win wars on its own since the end of World War II. Korea, Vietnam, the Iran-Iraq war (which the United States initiated through funding Iraq with tens of billions of dollars and weapons while demanding that Iraq invade Iran until it realized that Iran was still winning after 5 years so they switched course and started secretly funding Iran with money and weapons (see Iran Contra Affair)).

Then came the US attacks of the Middle East in the 2000s where at one point the United States was engaged in a war with six different countries simultaneously but could not realistically make one victory speech about any of them even after 20 years because they couldn’t figure out how to win. Instead they let military personal and soldiers flounder for decades in the deserts not winning nor receiving the necessary support or escalated troop numbers they needed. Eventually the United States told the troops to come home, in Afghanistan for example, with their tail between their legs not having accomplished anything. Once again an American war that didn’t go as planned.

With Libya the US didn’t even bother to start a war. They just bombed the hell out of the country and killed its president and other leaders, which were the only thing keeping the country remotely stable, then abandoned the country and it’s people, leaving it to become one of the top training grounds for Islamic terrorism and ISIS in the world, which is what it is today. This was not winning a war. What it was careless and bad strategy.

These kind of global displays of reckless destruction and stupidity used to work for the United States. Or at least they were usually confident they’d get away with them and there’d be no serious repercussions. But things have changed over the last five to ten years.

Other nations around the earth have gotten tired of them. Traditionally they weren’t able to do anything to stop the US from its careless bullying and bomb dropping. Because they were too small and the United States has too large a military. But with newfound confidence from large economies and a thirst to break free from American global dominance once and for all, along with the advent of new anti-American policies by the second and third largest superpowers, Russia and China, other smaller nations are being heard and welcomed into this new multinational super-alliance. Fast. And the one thing that all of these nations share in common is a hatred of all things Western.

Consider for a moment how many hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East alone who have been dreaming about taking deadly revenge against the United States for the last 23 years. With both Iran and Saudi Arabia forming new alliances with Russia and China in the last few weeks it appears that vision is ever closer for them. The fact that the Saudis would even dare dream of doing such a thing when the US, for better or worse, created the country in the first place and has supported this family of viscous dictators for almost a hundred years is unthinkable. But they did it. Just a week ago. That’s not something the United States ever counted on happening.

Why else would the White House permit the prince of Saudi Arabia MBS to chop up the body of an American journalist, Jamal Kashogi, into tiny pieces and stuff it into a suitcase with no consequences? What would be a capital offense for anyone else is permissible for the Saudis. Because ostensibly we need need each other. But that’s officially changed over the last month. We may still need them. But they don’t need us anymore.

Obviously the worst of all possible outcomes would be if these countries decided to break the United States’ monopoly on oil and the petro dollar, something that’s been contemplated and announced by both and China through newswires several times this year already. The US dollar would plummet instantly. The biggest challenge the United States faces is that it has one of the weakest economies in the world now, very different than 20-25 years ago. They have the largest national debt in human history and a debt to GDP ratio well over 100%.

Normally when a country reaches a Debt/GDP ratio of 60%, they are forced into brutal austerity measures by other countries around the world and are never able to rebuild their economy again. This is because statistical models show that once over 60% it’s impossible for any country to rebuild from that. The debt/GDP ratio of the US now is almost double that. The only thing keeping the United States afloat at this point is it’s large multinational military presence i.e. fear, and it’s monopoly over oil and world currency — the latter would immediately end if the other large superpowers convinced the Saudis it was okay to break this longstanding agreement with the US. The question now is what’s stopping them with new alliances with Russia and China?

The United States can never borrow enough to get out of its debt even by a little because no one else has that kind of money to loan them. The US could theoretically gather every billionaire in the country and strong arm them into assisting it in lowering its debt or in helping it increase its purchasing power. But even if they took every penny every billionaire in America possesses, it wouldn’t make a dent in the 22 trillion dollars of debt the United States has on its books now.

And that’s yesterdays news compared to the latest implosion of small and midsized banks across America, a path that as worrying and traumatizing as it is for most of us to witness, is just getting started. This poses another threat for the United States in being able to fund a full scale war against the new Communist Alliance. Although one may consider that due to how profitable war is for many parties, securing funding shouldn’t be a problem.

At this point only a war can save the United States. A war they would need to win. It’s how they got out of their last debt crisis, the Great Depression. If it weren’t for World War II it’s not likely the United States would’ve come out of the Great Depression to become the largest superpower in the world.

What’s important to piece together is who will be purportedly fighting who. Who are the Allied Powers now? The new Communist Alliance we’re seeing come together now is China, Russia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, and several smaller Eastern European nations. Will China invade Hong Kong and Taiwan soon and force them to fight in the conflict? Or will the United States come to their aid and start a war with China to defend these important economic houses? Does that imply they would fight with The Western Alliance?

Who is the Western Alliance? The United States, Canada, Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, Japan (yes it’s ironic how all the tables have switched sides since the last Great War), the Scandinavian nations, Turkey will fall on that side since they’re so indebted to the US, et al. Think NATO. One can easily see a potential problem. This isn’t the early 20th century. None of these once grand superpowers are as strong or powerful as they once were. Only Germany still poses an authoritative threat militarily to anyone besides the U.S.

It’s important to note that the United States has over 1500 military bases and black ops sites all over planet earth at this time. The second largest mass is that of Russia who only have 640 sites in total. This gives the United States a healthy advantage strategically going in.

One of the later events of yesterday that appeared in the news to add fire to the flames of an impending world war was the announcement that Finland has now decided to join NATO, against numerous warnings against that action at this time by other NATO countries, and Turkey publicly stated they were willing to ratify it. Talk about poking the bear. Not even the United States was willing to consider this, nor the membership of Ukraine for that matter (despite their incessant pleading for it) because everybody knows that was the main reason given by Putin as to why he invaded Ukraine. He doesn’t want Mother Russia to be unfairly surrounded by NATO member countries on his border. Which makes perfect sense. It’s a justifiable concern. Which is why major western countries have been unwilling to let Finland or Ukraine join NATO. It would only fan the flames of an already angry Russia. The fact that this too was announced yesterday was another step toward the wrong direction if what we all want is world peace.

More later. This is just the first in what will surely be more notes about this deeply concerning issue.

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On Social Welfare & Safety Net Programs

June 28, 2022

Comment: “Very admirable, but who exactly would be “fronting the bill” for all of that??”

Ed Hale:
Now don’t shoot me, but after studying other democracies around the world, that lean more socialist and less cut throat capitalist, we do find 1, (hold, don’t respond yet) whole populations of countries whose basic needs are met, based on a top down distribution system and they can still manage to not tax anyone more than 39%. One aspect of these systems is the recognition by everyone in the country, not just the governments — remember, they’re elected by the people, that once someone has collected a few million, they don’t need nor even benefit from millions or billions more.
The caveat: they are of course smaller countries with far fewer people. Which several of you have already reminded me of. I get that.
The irony, as I type this out, is that I am “the person in our friends group” who gets attacked the most for my extreme pro-capitalist views and defenses. I really really believe it’s what made America the best country in human history. (Not Democracy, because that’s common all over planet earth, and there are other countries that have much better more functional democracies.). It’s our capitalist spirit and the freedoms we have to do whatever we want to create and succeed. The lack of laws and limitations on our population in regards to business (comparatively) are singular and very beneficial. So I dont just support it; I love it. Plenty of my more blue blooded friends think I’m a fascist for loving capitalism so much. Fine.

BUT I do think we’ve created an extreme economic imbalance in the country. And I mean Czarist Russia or monarchical Great Britain level economic imbalance. It’s only a matter of time before America goes full on french or Bolshevik Revolution due to these imbalances. Just a thought, based on human history. Where America is now, with a relative few so wealthy they’re able to burn 100 dollar bills for fun and the majority not able to even pay for their health insurance, eventually they’re going to see the con and resist and revolt.
(IMO that’s what the Trump vote was. Revolt against wealthy elitists. Ironically. If the nomination went to Bernie, the candidate who actually won the nomination, it would have been an election between two outsiders both offering an “f this system” platform.)
Frankly, I’m at a point now where I’m more compassionately concerned about millions of people unable to make ends meet than I am about paying a high tax rate as I was 20 years ago. I’ve travelled to and lived in too many other democracies where everyone is cared for to believe the myths about “we can’t do that here”.
I’d really like to wake up one day and know that everyone’s basic needs are being met by a functioning compassionate system. That might be socialist capitalism. I’m alright with that now.
PS – this idea that we throw around that “people won’t be motivated to work” is still true now. In the present system. And it’s a small percentage. Most people would be more inclined to work hard and create something if they weren’t so angry depressed and desperate about paying their bills.
PPS – the other argument billionaires love to promote, they won’t be encouraged to philanthropy anymore. (!!!!!! Have to get that anger off my chest) Do I really have to even say it??? How about a system like so many other countries have where we don’t NEED billionaires to hold philanthropy over our heads. It’s a scapegoat to justify all the loopholes we allow. “Hey I’ll build a hospital wing if you let me pay only 3% in taxes this year through loopholes.” No thanks. We’ll build our own hospital wings.

Comment: “Admirable ideas. But source beings don’t ask for free gifts. Giving things away to people just creates more dependence.”

Ed Hale: Aaahhh…. See, I dont see the above as “free gifts” at all. BUT I’m viewing it from way above with the perspective of the last 7,000 years of recorded human history and heck, even adding the prior 3,000 — so from the moment of the melting of the last ice age when Homo sapiens first started forming modern civilizations (which admittedly is from where I always view nearly everything when we’re speaking of humanity).
From there one doesn’t see the “free gifts” idea. What one sees is a cooperative human society focused on survival and long rooted in 10,000 years of deliberate maneuvering and intelligent strategic decisions where each member does what they are naturally best at to serve the whole. Strong ass men are going to hunt, or work security and defense, or chop wood and build fortresses; smart folks are going to design better and better weapons or fortresses or tools; younger fertile women are going to carry children to term, have the babies, feed the babies i.e. one part of a much larger whole that perpetuates the species; older women are going to teach them how to do that, help and nurture them while they do that; etc etc. That’s just a tiny sample of a much larger picture of 10,000 years of human history as we know it. Humans have survived by working as a collective.
(If a man sits down at a fire to eat and play with this babies and kids in his tribe after a long day hunting, he’s not thinking that that fire that someone else built is a “free gift”, nor is that meal someone else cooked all day that he’s eating a free gift, nor are those babies he’s playing with a free gift. He understands how successful human societies work.

Comment: Ed Hale Wow You should be a poet, or writer, even a song-writer!😘
You speak with truth and wisdom.
We see the natural way of things.
One day…

Comment: his intelligence is refreshing and I love it! We could use a daily dose of Ed Hale and his wise words❤️👍💯

Comment: Ed Hale Yes everyone needs to contribute. I agree with that. Handouts are not providing anything of value in return. #Disservice

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A President Should Be Presidential – On China Trade War and the Federal Reserve

August 31, 2019

REALITY CHECK: While many (including myself) agree with the US president’s stance on China Trade, specifically the need to stop forced technology transfers and IP theft (the trade imbalance is not actually an issue; certainly not one that can be or ever has been solved through a race to the bottom tariff war. Trade imbalances between nations of different sizes have always and will always exist. Attempting to equalize Trade monetarily is ill advised. The US president either doesn’t know this yet or refuses to acknowledge it publicly), all who actually work in business, finance and economics wholeheartedly believe that he, and we, would be much better served if he stopped attacking and blaming Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for the extreme volatility in global bond and equity markets and the general economic slowdown and instead acknowledged that it is indeed the current trade war with China.

Main-streeters may be entertained by these daily twitter shenanigans (since when is a US president allowed to tweet? Didn’t President Obama have to relinquish his BlackBerry when he took office?) But Wall Street, economists and big business are shocked and horrified. There’s something palpably disturbing about having a commander and chief who knows less than you do about business and finance. Which is why markets have been headed nowhere or down for a year and half and why global bond yields are tanking.

Just because someone is standing in front of you confidently asserting they see a pink elephant doesn’t mean there’s a pink elephant in the room with you. No matter how many times they scream or tweet it. There is never a time when it’s not important to remember this.

The biggest economic conundrum the United States faces at the moment regarding interest rates is that economic conditions are doing well by all measures that The (not)Fed uses to address its dual mandate of maintaining stable inflation and keeping unemployment low. The United States is at record low unemployment. Even by the president’s own accounts… And yes this seeming disconnect in his understanding of basic economics is frustrating. And disturbing. So the (not)Fed has absolutely no realistic fundamental reasons to lower rates based on their long running mandate.

While it’s true that the global economy seems to be heading toward a recession, or worse (over 30 countries now have negative yielding interest rates — with a record 15 TRILLION dollars in global debt that is yielding negative interest! This is historically unprecedented in human civilization), and many now have inverted yield curves (including the US)), the US is still doing impressively well. Meaning lowering rates is not justifiable.

Further rate cuts by the US central bank based solely on other countries’ lowering theirs may excite markets for a day or two, but will ultimately lead to a sell off as investors lose faith in the US central bank’s normally independent, rational and clear headed process. It could also lead to a very fast race to the bottom of treasury rates globally, gut savings and retirement accounts, castrate bank’s’ ability to make money, and further exacerbate the growing global economic slowdown. At that point the world would no longer have the US economy or markets to run to. And THAT would be a major problem considering it’s the last TINA Trade left on earth right now to grow money.

Furthermore if the world does continue to shrink economically and the Federal Reserve suddenly needs to actually lower rates or resort to QE again to save us from impending doom, they’ll have no ammunition left if they lower rates now in a “booming economy”. It’s an illogical argument. And it’s sad that there are decent hardworking Americans out there who are literally learning about these issues from someone who’s either extremely ignorant about them or overtly attempting to deceive them. It’s blatantly irresponsible.

So… what to do? Because most informed people agree with the noble goal of addressing the problems with China trade, most support the president’s courageous attempt to do so at this time. Including me. Tariff wars might not be the best way to do it. Historically they’ve rarely worked. But just starting the process is a good intention. Can’t fault him for his willingness to take this bold step. He’s swimming in uncharted waters. And despite our political leanings he needs our support. Just as we need his.

What he needs to do is stop tweeting insults, attacks, false facts and conspiracy theories and instead sit down behind his desk on live TV and address the nation, to honestly and passionately tell the American people and the world how important this battle is, why we’re doing it and that we all need to pitch in and prepare for some serious pain now in order to secure a better fairer trade agreement with China for our future.

If he did this, the confusion would abate and so too might the market volatility. Hell, markets might even rally just to show support for his newfound diplomacy and honesty and the stability it portends. In addition he might even rally the American people to unify for even a brief period while we face this important challenge. Just a thought.

— Ambassador out

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Making Sense of the First Democratic Debates – Proposals and Policies – Part 1

June 29, 2019

Before we dive in to the specific platforms and policies that we heard proposed in the first Democratic Debates over the last two nights, let us address a few things that may have been left out or only alluded to in the last piece I wrote about the candidates yesterday [Read that here if you missed it].

Prologue

I’ve given this some thought over the years…. So from the start I’d like to attempt to share it with you. It’s no secret that I have often been accused of being “wishy washy”, i.e. refusing to take a position on a variety of subjects, not decidedly having an opinion, as most people seem to. On a whole host of matters. This is something I share with a very good friend you’ve heard me reference here in the Diaries many times, Matthew Sabatella (occasionally referred to as Toad in earlier years when these Diaries were more a workshop for the novel The Adventures of Fishy. And with Madeline O’Ryan. We spent our youth teens and twenties often ruminating and philosophizing on a whole host of subjects, finding it very difficult to understand the consciousness of those who could readily just make up their mind on something and give it no more thought. We found, and still do I believe, that important matters often have multiple facets that affect many people.

Despite what you may think you believe, research it a bit more or give it some more thought and you’ll find that it’s deeper and trickier than you first were led to believe. As a Philosophy major and a recording artist this way of being served me well, certainly didn’t hurt me, and in fact led to the whole “Ambassador” ideology that helped shape who I am today. I truly subscribe to the Will Rogers “I never met a person I didn’t like” mentality. Of course this infuriates both my liberal and my conservative friends. But it’s just how I was genetically spun. It’s how I came out. It serves The Ambassador very well. Ed Hale, maybe not so much sometimes. But I just happen to love people, and can usually find it pretty easy to see their side of things… and I just happen to be able to see all sides to almost any issue. They’re all just beliefs after all. Beliefs that we make up in each present moment. Whether we know it or not. (That’s really the secret. But that’s not what this post is about.)

Some people decide to be leaders. They want to be leaders. Some of them choose politics as their way of leading. In the old days, throughout our short history here on earth, these political leaders usually started out as corrupt thieves, conquerors, murderers and warriors. That’s human history in a nutshell. Study it. Royalty is a fancy way of attempting to legitimize being a heartless and corrupt thief and murderer. So too are most major religions. And most of human history’s most famous political leaders. Whether you start at the very very beginning with humanity’s first known “king” Sargon the Great, or the Egyptian Pharoes, through to the Akkadian, Babylonian and Persian kings or Alexander the not so Great, Attilla the Hun, Gengis Khan, Julius Caesar, all the Popes, the Sultans, the Ottomons, the English kings and Queens, etc etc on down the line what you find is a very bloody list of horrible human beings. more “Making Sense of the First Democratic Debates – Proposals and Policies – Part 1”

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Making Sense of the First Democratic Debates – Proposals and Policies – Part 2

June 29, 2019

[This is Part 2 of a two-part post on this subject. Part 1 can be read here.]

Some Thoughts On Proposed Democratic Platform Policies

Let’s quickly explore some of the platforms and policies that we heard proposed in the last few days by the various candidates for the democratic presidential nominee. It should make for an interesting exploration of just how divergent viewpoints can be… even by those who share the same country and purported values…

But let us preface this with something important. Remember that we have two goals here: first and foremost, the goal (for many Americans, at least half of them) is to see Donald Trump lose the general election in 2020. So some of the reasoning that will be used in examining the issues will be based on what will best help achieve that goal. The secondary goal of course is to actually achieve some of these proposed policy objectives during the next presidential term, hopefully, for many, one occupied by a Democrat. But just to be clear, these proposed policy goals should not prevent the Democrats from achieving the number one goal, i.e. defeating Donald Trump (if that, as stated, is their number one overarching goal, and pushing him back into the private sector. If this is not accomplished, we will achieve NONE of these policy goals as a country and most likely continue to move backwards into more traditionally conservative and non-progressive territory, and continue to become more divided socially, politically and economically.

(Just for the record, to all my conservative and republican friends reading this, please remember, I’m more of a Trump defender and apologist than most that lean middle of the road or Libertarian, even some disheartened republicans that I know. You can’t claim I haven’t tried to be impartial, fair or open minded. I have. More than most. Though I applaud his achievements over the last two years, I just can’t get on board with his divisive often combative style of governing (if one can call it that) and do not believe that Trump is mature, stable or sane enough to be POTUS. The stakes are beginning to become too high. And let’s be honest, everyone is just far too upset and uptight due to his irrational unpredictability, often disrespectful hate speech, complete lack of knowledge of facts and history, shocking lack of knowledge about etiquette, diplomacy and protocol, questionable business ethics and surprisingly crazy antics. The country is an emotional hot mess, ready to tear itself apart any day — very reminiscent of the United States in the late 60s and early 70s. It’s just not worth it having this guy around, at this time, despite (what some may consider) his good intentions for the country. IMHO at least. There is someone out there who can lead just as effectively without so much drama and shenanigans. Less class clown and more valedictorian.)

So… Regarding all those proposed policies we heard bandied about this week…. It was a lot to take in. For anyone. Surprising the candidates did as good of a job answering the myriad questions tossed their way as they did. Well prepared they were. Especially Harris, Booker and Sanders. more “Making Sense of the First Democratic Debates – Proposals and Policies – Part 2”

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A private little world for me… a private little world for you. The online journals and musings of singer-songwriter author and activist Ed Hale. The Transcendence Diaries have been posting regularly online since 2001. Comments are always welcomed. And so are YOU.

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